Under the background of the pension system reform in government departments and public institutions, occupational pension is an important supplement to basic endowment insurance, and provides retirement income in the form of a complete accumulation mechanism. By constructing an actuarial cash flow balance model, this study calculates the replacement rate from occupational pension for “new people” who begin to work in government departments and public institutions in 2015 onwards, and analyzes its influencing factors such as retirement age, rate of investment return, contribution rate, wage growth rate, etc. The results reveal that delaying retirement, increasing the rate of return and increasing the rate of contribution have significant positive effects on the growth of the replacement rate. Meanwhile, the increase in wage growth rate has a negative impact on replacement rate. When the influencing factors are the same, the replacement rate of men is about 5% higher than that of women. The main reason is that the average life expectancy of women is longer. The policy suggestions are as follows: appropriately delaying retirement to adapt to the changes in demographic structure; optimizing investment operations to ensure investment return; improving rate of individual contribution flexibly to accelerate the accumulation of funds.
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