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基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的乌江重庆段水质演变预测研究
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Abstract:
利用2011~2020年乌江重庆段共5个水质断面的监测数据，结合区域内经济发展情况拟合出环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)，对乌江重庆段水质、人口与经济发展之间产生的关系进行分析研究。研究表明：近10年来，NH3-N、Zn、TP和F？等参数都与经济发展之间存在典型的“倒U”型曲线关系，且位于曲线拐点的右侧，而IMn、BOD5和FC等参数则与经济发展之间的关系呈现为“N”型三次曲线关系，总体尚处于EKC曲线拐点的左侧。结果表明，随着经济增长，NH3-N、Zn、TP和F？已经迎来了拐点，得到了较好的控制；而IMn、BOD5和FC等参数则可能受到新技术或生产方式的影响，尚未迎来拐点，在未来一段时期内还有回升的可能。
Based on the monitoring data of 5 water quality sections of Wujiang River in Chongqing from 2011 to 2020, combined with the economic development in the region, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was fitted to analyze the relationship among water quality, population and economic development of Wujiang River in Chongqing. The results show that in the past 10 years, there is a typical inverted U-curve relationship between ammonia nitrogen, zinc, total phosphorus and fluoride and economic development, which is located on the right side of the inflection point of the curve, while the relationship between permanganate index, 5-days biochemical oxygen demand, fecal coliform bacteria and economic development is an N cubic curve, which is still on the left side of the inflection point of EKC. The results show that with the economic growth, ammonia nitrogen, zinc, total phosphorus and fluoride have reached an inflection point and have been well controlled, while the parameters such as permanganate index, 5-days biochemical oxygen demand and fecal coliform group may be affected by new technology or mode of production, and the inflection point has not yet been reached, and it is still possible to pick up in the coming period of time.
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