|
水库汛期运行水位动态控制风险和效益分析
|
Abstract:
汛期运行水位动态控制可通过挖掘利用预报信息提高水库兴利效益,但需合理评估可能面临的防洪风险。在提出水库和下游防洪保护对象附加防洪风险概念的基础上,建立了水库面临不同量级预报入库洪水时的运行水位动态控制优化模型,并以三峡水库为例,分别选取丰、平、枯三个典型年进行了验证分析,结果表明:1) 丰水年可以增加发电量约4%,枯水年和平水年汛期最大可以增加发电量约8%和9%;2) 当水库预报入库洪峰流量小于66,000 m3/s,运行水位控制在151 m及以下时,城陵矶地区附加防洪风险率小于0.5%。给出的汛期运行水位、预报洪峰流量和城陵矶地区下游附加防洪风险之间的关系,可以为三峡水库的调度决策提供更为丰富的参考信息。
The dynamic control of operating water level during the flood season can improve the benefit of reser-voir by exploiting the forecast information, but it is necessary to reasonably assess the possible flood risks. Based on the concept of additional flood control risks for reservoirs and downstream flood protection objects, an optimization model of operating water level dynamic control when reservoirs face different magnitudes of forecasted incoming floods is established. Then taking Three Gorges Reservoir as an example, three typical years of high, normal, and low were selected for verification analysis. The results showed that: 1) The generation capacity can be increased by about 4% in high flow years, and the maximum increase of power generation capacity can be about 8% and 9% during the flood season in normal and low flow years; 2) when the forecasted incoming flood flow of the reservoir is less than 66,000 m3/s and the operating water level is controlled at 151 m and below, the additional flood protection risk rate of Chenglingji area is less than 0.5%. The given relationships between the operating water level, the forecast flood flow and the additional flood risk in the downstream of the Chenglingji area can provide more reference information for the operation decision of the Three Gorges Reservoir.
[1] | 郭生练, 汪芸, 周研来, 等. 丹江口水库洪水资源调控技术研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2015, 4(1): 1-8.
GUO Shenglian, WANG Yun, ZHOU Yanlai, et al. Optimal control of flood water resources for the Danjiangkou Reservoir. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2015, 4(1): 1-8. (in Chinese) |
[2] | 陈立华, 潘子豪, 刘为福, 等. 龙滩水电站汛期分期及合理性检验[J]. 水力发电, 2019, 45(5): 17-21.
CHEN Lihua, PAN Zihao, LIU Weifu, et al. Flood season staging and its rationality verification for Longtan hydropower station. Water Power, 2019, 45(5): 17-21. (in Chinese) |
[3] | 王家彪, 廖卫红, 付晓杰, 等. 基于熵权法的万安水库汛期分期计算[J]. 水利水电技术, 2018, 49(1): 36-41.
WANG Jiabiao, LIAO Weihong, FU Xiaojie, et al. Entropy weight method-based calculation on phase-division of flood season for Wan’an Reservoir. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2018, 49(1): 36-41. (in Chinese) |
[4] | 谭一帆. 水库汛期运行水位动态控制及风险分析[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 武汉: 武汉大学, 2018.
TAN Yifan. Dynamic control and risk analysis of operating water level in reservoir flood season. Master’s Thesis, Wuhan: Wuhan University, 2018. (in Chinese) |
[5] | 王声扬, 周研来, 朱迪, 陈华. 洞庭湖流域水系汛期分期研究[J]. 水资源研究, 2022, 11(4): 366-379.
WANG Shengyang, ZHOU Yanlai, ZHU Di, et al. Study on flood season segmentation of Dongting Lake basin. Journal of Water Resources Research, 2012, 11(4): 366-379. (in Chinese) |
[6] | 郑玉婷, 王丽萍, 谢宇韬, 等. 改进的VIKOR决策模型在大隆水库汛期水位动态控制中的应用[J]. 水电能源科学, 2020, 38(6): 38-41.
ZHENG Yuting, WANG Liping, XIE Yutao, et al. Application of improved VIKOR decision model in water level dynamic control of Dalong Reservoir in flood season. Water Resources and Power, 2020, 38(6): 38-41. (in Chinese) |
[7] | 雷苏琪, 胡振鹏, 熊斌, 等. 水库汛限水位动态控制预泄能力约束法的必要条件[J]. 水利水电技术, 2022, 53(6): 146-154.
LEI Suqi, HU Zhenpeng, XIONG Bin, et al. Necessary condition of constrained pre-discharge capacity method for dynamic control of reservoir flood limit water level. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2022, 53(6): 146-154. (in Chinese) |
[8] | 李英海, 夏青青, 常文娟, 等. 水库汛限水位确定方法研究综述[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2020, 31(5): 127-134.
LI Yinghai, XIA Qingqing, CHANG Wenjuan, et al. Review of the methods of reservoir’s limiting water level during flood season. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2020, 31(5): 127-134. (in Chinese) |
[9] | 王俊, 郭生练. 三峡水库汛期控制水位及运用条件[J]. 水科学进展, 2020, 31(4): 473-480.
WANG Jun, GUO Shenglian. On Three Gorge Reservoir control water level and operating conditions in flood season. Ad-vances in Water Science, 2020, 31(4): 473-480. (in Chinese) |
[10] | 朱昊阳, 黄炜斌, 瞿思哲, 等. 水库汛限水位动态控制域风险分析及方案优选[J]. 水利水电技术, 2018, 49(12): 134-140.
ZHU Haoyang, HUANG Weibin, QU Sizhe, et al. Risk analysis on dynamic control domain of reservoir flood limited water level and its scheme optimization. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2018, 49(12): 134-140. (in Chinese) |
[11] | 张晓琦, 刘攀, 陈进, 等. 基于两阶段风险分析的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型[J]. 工程科学与技术, 2022, 54(5): 141-148.
ZHANG Xiaoqi, LIU Pan, CHEN Jin, et al. Dynamic control model of multi-reservoir Flood limited water levels during flood seasons based on the two-stage flood risk analysis. Advanced Engineering Sciences, 2022, 54(5): 141-148. (in Chinese) |
[12] | 李晓英, 张琰, 童泽淳. 水库汛限水位控制多目标协同决策研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2022, 41(2): 31-42.
LI Xiaoying, ZHANG Yan and TONG Zechun. Study on multi-objective cooperative decision making of flood control water levels of reservoirs. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2022, 41(2): 31-42. (in Chinese) |
[13] | PAN, J., XIE, Y., LIU, M., et al. Dynamic control of water level in flood limited reservoir based on intelligent calculation. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022, 2022: 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3683122 |
[14] | LIU, G., et al. Multi-objective optimal scheduling model of dynamic control of flood limit water level for cascade reservoirs. Water, 2019, 11(9): 1818-1836. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091836 |
[15] | ZHANG, Y., WANG, G., PENG, Y., et al. Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood forecast error. Science China Technological Sciences, 2011, 54(7): 1888-1893.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-011-4392-2 |
[16] | MU, Z., AI, X., DING, J., et al. Risk analysis of dynamic water level setting of reservoir in flood season based on multi-index. Water Resources Management, 2022, 36(9): 3067-3086. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03188-z |
[17] | 谭乔凤, 雷晓辉, 王浩, 等. 考虑梯级水库库容补偿和设计洪水不确定性的汛限水位动态控制域研究[J]. 工程科学与技术, 2017, 49(1): 60-69.
TAN Qiaofeng, LEI Xiaohui, WANG Hao, et al. Dynamic control bound of flood limited water level considering capacity compensation regulation and design flood uncertainty of cascade reservoirs. Advanced Engineering Sciences, 2017, 49(1): 60-69. (in Chinese) |
[18] | 顿晓晗, 周建中, 张勇传, 等. 水库实时防洪风险计算及库群防洪库容分配互用性分析[J]. 水利学报, 2019, 50(2): 209-217, 224.
DUN Xiaohan, ZHOU Jianzhong, ZHANG Yongchuan, et al. Real-time flood control risk estimation of reservoir and analysis on the interoperability of storage capacity of multi-reservoir regulation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2019, 50(2): 209-217, 224. (in Chinese) |
[19] | 任明磊, 何晓燕, 丁留谦, 等. 水库汛限水位动态控制域确定方法研究发展动态综述[J]. 水力发电, 2016, 42(6): 61-65.
REN Minglei, HE Xiaoyan, DING Liuqian, et al. Review on the methods of fixing dynamic control range of reservoir water level in flood season. Water Power, 2016, 42(6): 61-65. (in Chinese) |
[20] | 马一鸣, 邱林, 常思源, 等. 潘家口水库群汛限水位动态控制分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2019(1): 46-50.
MA Yiming, QIU Lin, CHANG Siyuan, et al. Dynamic control analysis of flood limit water level of Panjiakou Reservoir group. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2019(1): 46-50. (in Chinese) |
[21] | 中华人民共和国水利部. GB/T 22482-2008水文情报预报规范[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2008.
The Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China. GB/T 22482-2008 standard for hydrological information and hydrological forecasting. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 2008. (in Chinese) |