中国–东盟国家经贸发展研究
Research on the Economic and Trade Development of China-ASEAN Countries

伴随着中国宣布与东盟建立全面战略伙伴关系，我国与东盟十国将如何发展备受瞩目。依据牛顿万有引力而引发出来的贸易引力模型是对国际贸易问题进行实证分析的重要方法。本文以传统的引力模型为基础，通过构建进口和出口贸易引力模型，运用2013~2019年中国和10个东盟成员国定量分析中国与东盟十国总体进出口贸易的状况，得出影响中国与东盟十国双边进出口贸易流量的因素主要有各国的GDP总量、总人口、两个国家之间的首都距离和政策颁布等。结构显示，认为在中国与东盟建立全面战略伙伴关系的背景下，中国与东盟十国之间存在着巨大的贸易潜力，并提出了相应建议。
With the announcement of the establishment of comprehensive strategic partnership between China and ASEAN, how China and the ten ASEAN countries will develop is attracting much attention. The trade gravity model based on Newton’s gravitation is an important method for empirical analysis of international trade issues. Based on the traditional gravity model, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the overall import and export trade situation between China and 10 ASEAN members from 2013 to 2019 by building the gravity model of import and export trade. It is concluded that the main factors affecting the bilateral import and export flow between China and ten ASEAN countries are the total GDP of each country, the total population, the distance between the two capitals and the promulgations of policies. The structure shows that it believes that there is huge trade potential between China and ten ASEAN countries under the background of establishing comprehensive strategic partnership between China and ASEAN, and puts forward corresponding suggestions.