双碳背景下的京津冀地区碳排放影响因素研究
Research on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Jingjinji Region under the Dual Carbon Background

全球气候变暖是全世界所有国家共同面临的挑战，中国作为有责任和作为的负责任大国，一直积极推进碳减排工作的实施。本文根据京津冀地区碳排放特点建立STIRPAT模型，采用岭回归方法进行参数确定，建立情景分析法对碳排放进行预测。研究发现人口数量、人均收入水平、能源强度、能源价格、产业结构、城镇化率的增长都会使京津冀地区的碳排放量增加，FDI、公共交通的增长会使京津冀地区的碳排放量减少。其中能源强度对碳排放量的影响最大，FDI对碳排放量的影响最低。FDI作为衡量外资的指标，对碳排放量影响很小。各因素处于低速模式对于碳排放的降低最有效果，但是人均收入水平和城镇化率低速增长不利于京津冀地区的经济增长与城镇化建设；高速模式相比较其他模式，在碳排放预测中具有显著优势，且能够促进京津冀地区经济增长，符合国家期望与相应政策。
Global climate change is a common challenge faced by all countries around the world. As a responsible and responsible major country, China has been actively promoting the implementation of carbon reduction work. This article establishes a STIRPAT model based on the characteristics of carbon emissions in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, uses ridge regression method to determine parameters, and establishes scenario analysis method to predict carbon emissions. The study found that the growth of population, per capita income, energy intensity, energy price, industrial structure and urbanization rate will increase the carbon emissions in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, while the growth of FDI and public transport will reduce the carbon emissions in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. Among them, energy intensity has the greatest impact on carbon emissions, while FDI has the lowest impact on carbon emissions. FDI, as a measure of foreign investment, has little impact on carbon emissions. The low-speed mode of various factors is most effective in reducing carbon emissions, but the low growth rate of per capita income and urbanization rate is not conducive to economic growth and urbanization construction in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region; Compared with other modes, high-speed mode has significant advantages in carbon emission prediction and can promote eco-nomic growth in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, which meets national expectations and corresponding policies.