新疆头屯河流域气候因子对径流的影响程度研究
Study on the Impact Degree of Climate Factors on Runoff in the Toutun River Basin of Xinjiang

为分析研究新疆头屯河流域降水、气温两个气候因子的演变规律以及两气候因子对径流量的影响程度，本文采用了水文统计学中常用的滑动平均处理方法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检验方法对流域60多年的实测降水量序列和气温序列资料进行了统计分析，总结归纳了其气候演变规律。结果表明头屯河流域降水量序列总体呈现缓慢增加的趋势，趋势变化不显著，气温序列整体呈现上升趋势，趋势变化显著。本文还采用了互相关技术和多元线性回归技术分析研究了流域降水量和气温两个因子与径流量的相关关系以及三者之间的相关程度，建立了降水量、气温两个气候因子跟径流量的线性回归方程。结果表明头屯河流域降水量与径流量呈正相关关系，相关程度较高，气温与径流量呈负相关关系，相关程度不高。
To analyze and study the evolution patterns of precipitation and temperature, as well as the impact of these two climatic factors on runoff in the Toutun River basin of Xinjiang, this article uses the commonly used moving average processing method, Mann Kendall trend test, and mutation test methods in hydrological statistics to analyze the measured precipitation and temperature data series, and summarize the climate evolution regulations over the past 60 years. The results indicate that the overall precipitation sequence shows a slow increasing trend, with no significant trend change. The overall temperature sequence shows an upward trend, with significant trend change. This article also uses cross correlation techniques and multiple linear regression techniques to analyze and study the correlation between the two factors of precipitation and temperature in the watershed and runoff, as well as the degree of correlation between the three factors. A linear regression equation is established between the two climate factors of precipitation and temperature and runoff. The results show that there is a positive correlation between precipitation and runoff with a high degree of correlation, while there is a negative correlation between temperature and runoff, with a low degree of correlation.