Governments
influence the economy by changing the level and types of taxes, the extent and
composition of spending, and the degree and form of borrowing. Governments
directly and indirectly influence the way resources are used in the economy.
Higher taxes, fees, and greater regulations can stymie businesses or entire
industries and the resulting impact is reflected on the country’s economy status
(strong or weak). The growth rate of GDP is often used as an indicator of the
general health of the economy. In broad terms, an increase in real GDP is
interpreted as a sign that the economy is doing well. So it is important to
study and pay more attention to country’s GDP growth rate. In this paper, an
intervention analysis approach was applied to Nigeria GDP data in order to
evaluate the performances of military and civilian rules in the country. Data
on Nigeria GDP were collected and subjected to interrupted (intervention) time
series model. Based on the Alkaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian
Information Criterion (BIC) and sigma2 values, the interrupted time
series model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) with exogenous variables (per capita per capita GDP, intervention,
year and yearAfter) was identified as the best model amongst other competing
models. It was observed that the intervention (civilian rule) was significant
at the 10% level of significance in increasing the Nigeria GDP by 10B US$ on
the average since 2005 till 2021 while controlling for the effects of other
determinants. Also, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) forecasts indicate that the Nigeria GDP
will continue increasing during the civilian rule. As a result, changing from
military rule to civilian rule in Nigeria significantly increased the GDP of
the country.
References
[1]
Przeworski, A. and Limongi, F. (1993) Political Regimes and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7, 51-69. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.7.3.51
[2]
Friedman, M. (1962) Capitalism and Freedom. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 133.
[3]
Scully, G.W. (1988) The Institutional Framework and Economic Development. Journal of Political Economy, 96, 652-662. https://doi.org/10.1086/261555
[4]
Barro, R.J. (1994) Democracy and Growth. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.3386/w4909
[5]
Horowitz, I.L. (1966) Three Worlds of Development. Oxford University Press, New York.
[6]
Odetola, O. (1982) Military Regimes and Development: A Comparative Analysis in African Societies. Allen & Unwin, London, 105.
[7]
Chete, L.N. and Robert, F. (1996) Government and The Economy: Review of Concepts and Perspectives on Nigeria’s Economy, beyond Adjustment. Proceedings of the Annual Conference on beyond Adjustment: Management of the Nigeria Economy, Ibadan, 6-8 March 1996.
[8]
Okafor, J.C. and Okafor, U.C. (2015) ECOWAS and Democratic Reversal in West Africa: Re-Visiting Military Incursion on State Leadership.
http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/IAGS/article/view/26390/12/11/2015/12.23pm
[9]
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. and Robinson, J.A. (2005) Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. In: Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S.N., Eds., Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1, Part A, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 385-472.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01006-3
Eminue, O. (2006) Military in Politics. Soulmate Press and Publishers, Uyo.
[12]
Ekele, S. (2011) Issues and Problems of Military and Politics in Africa. Musuve Publishing Company, Nairobi.
[13]
Bamgboye P.O. (2014) The Military and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria (1983-1999): A Critical Appraisal. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5, 2340-2344. https://doi.org/10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n23p2340
[14]
Tavares, J. and Wacziarg, R. (2001) How Democracy Affects Growth. European Economic Review, 45, 1341-1378. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00093-3
[15]
Rodrik, D. and Wacziarg, R. (2005) Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes? The American Economic Review, 95, 50-55.
https://doi.org/10.1257/000282805774670059
[16]
Mueller, M.J. and Atesoglu, H.S. (1993) Defense Spending, Technological Change and Economic Growth in the United States. Defence Economics, 4, 259-269.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719308404765
[17]
Murdoch, J.C., Pi, C.-R. and Sandler, T. (1997) The Impact of Defense and Non-Defense Public Spending on Growth in Asia and Latin America. Defence and Peace Economics, 8, 205-224. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719708404876
[18]
Shieh, J.-Y., Lai, C.-C. and Chang, W.-Y. (2002) The Impact of Military Burden on Long-Run Growth and Welfare. Journal of Development Economics, 68, 443-455.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(02)00022-6
[19]
Wijewerra, A. and Webb, M.J. (2011) Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 22, 545-554.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2010.533905
[20]
Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S. and Öcal, N. (2005) Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 16, 283-295. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500114751
[21]
Benoit, E. (1973) Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Lexington Books, Lexington.
[22]
Biswas, B. and Ram, R. (1986) Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: An Augmented Model and Further Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34, 361-372. https://doi.org/10.1086/451533
[23]
Deger, S. and Smith, R. (1983) Military Expenditure and Growth in Less Developed Countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27, 335-353.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002783027002006
[24]
Maizels, A. and Nissanke, M. (1986) The Determinants of Military Expenditures in Developing Countries. World Development, 14, 1125-1140.
https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(86)90115-4
[25]
Nincic, M. and Cusack, T. (1979) The Political Economy of US Military Spending. Journal of Peace Research, 16, 101-115.
https://doi.org/10.1177/002234337901600202
[26]
Aizenman, J. and Glick, R. (2006) Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 15, 129-155.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09638190600689095
[27]
Kentor, J. and Kick, E. (2008) Bringing the Military Back in: Military Expenditures and Economic Growth 1990 to 2003, Journal of World-Systems Research, 14, 142-172.
https://doi.org/10.5195/jwsr.2008.342
[28]
Pieroni, L. (2009) Military Expenditure and Economic Growth. Defense and Peace Economics, 20, 327-339. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690701589876
[29]
Yang, A., Trumbull, W., Yang, C. and Huang, B. (2011) On the Relationship between Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach. Defense and Peace Economics, 22, 449-457.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2010.497723
[30]
Dunne, J.P., Smith, R.P. and Willenbockel, D. (2005) Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review. Defence and Peace Economics, 16, 449-461.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500167791
[31]
Anyiwe M.A. and Oziegbe, A. (2006) Democracy and Economic Growth: Statistical Evidence from Nigeria 1960-2002. Journal of Applied Sciences, 6, 257-265.
https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2006.257.265
[32]
Kagochi, J. (2008) Leadership Style Influence on Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economic Theory, 2, 101-106.
[33]
Ehigiamusoe, U. (2012) A Comparative Analysis of Agricultural Performance between the Military and Civilian Regimes in Nigeria. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention, 1, 13-23.
[34]
Umaru, A., Adeyemi, G. and Kehinde, B.E. (2014) Democracy and the Performance of the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 4, 191-207.
[35]
Babalola, B., Salako, A.,Yusuf, S. and Egbekunle, S. (2015) Comparative Analysis of Sectoral Civilian and Military Governments Expenditures on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Ardle Approach. Journal of Applied Economics and Business, 3, 52-73.
[36]
Yunana, T., Yunana, Y. and Muhammad, D. (2016) An Empirical Analysis of Democracy Governance and Economic Development in Nigeria. Journal of Advances in Political Science, 2, 50-54.
[37]
Anyiwe, M.A. and Oziegbe, A. (2006) Democracy and Economic Growth: Statistical Evidence from Nigeria 1960-2002. Journal of Applied Sciences, 6, 257-265.
https://doi.org/10.3923/jas.2006.257.265
[38]
Knafl, G.J. (2022) Adaptive Regression for Nonlinear Interrupted Time Series Analyses with Application to Birth Defects in Children of Vietnam War Veterans. Open Journal of Statistics, 12, 789-809. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojs.2022.126045
[39]
Jiang, H., Dowling, R., Hameed, M., Painter, F., Vuong, A., Booth, A., Opie, J., Boh, J., McLean, N. and McIntosh, J. (2022) Comparison of Social and Economic Stress in Military and Civilian Families: A Rapid Review of the Evidence. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 10, 320-347. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2022.1011022
[40]
Hashim, E., Norimah, R., Nurhanani, A., Norasibah, A., Syazwani, M.B. and Ng, W.R. (2018) Determinants of Real GDP in Malaysiam. The Journal of Social Sciences Research, 3, 97-103. https://doi.org/10.32861/jssr.spi3.97.103
[41]
Box, G. and Jenkins, G. (1970) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
[42]
Bartholomew, D.C., Nwaigwe, C.C., Orumie, U.C. and Nwafor, G.O. (2023) Intervention Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria: The Naïve Solution versus Interrupted Time Series. Annals of Data Science.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40745-023-00462-8
[43]
Hair, J., Black, W.C., Babin, B.J. and Anderson, R.E. (2010) Multivariate Data Analysis. 7th Edition, Pearson Educational International, New York.
[44]
Byrne, B.M. (2010) Structural Equation Modeling with AMOS: Basic Concepts, Applications, and Programming. Routledge, New York.
