江苏电网电力负荷变化特征研究
Study on Load Variation Characteristics of Jiangsu Power Grid

电力负荷的变化特征对电网的安全运行、经济调度具有重要意义，文章研究了2016~2021年江苏省电力负荷变化特征，结果表明：(1) 近6年江苏省逐日电力负荷最大值、最小值和平均值表现为波动中整体呈逐渐增加趋势，在年际尺度以下，电力负荷曲线具有明显的双峰结构特征，冬季和夏季分别是一年中两个电力负荷的高值区；(2) 江苏省电力负荷日变化很有规律，04:00~05:00左右为最低值，随后电力负荷快速上升，11:00左右出现高峰，12:00左右电力负荷下降，13:00左右负荷处于低谷期，随后电力负荷有所增加然后一直维持在较高水平，直到夜间22:00过后电力负荷开始下降；(3) 4~10月，随着气温的升高，江苏省最大电力负荷呈现增加趋势，10月到次年4月，随着气温的降低，江苏省最大电力负荷也呈现增加趋势；(4) 日最大电力负荷与日最高(低)气温的散点图表现为扁“U”型分布，随着日最高(低)气温的升高，日最大电力负荷呈现先减小后增加的趋势。当日最高气温在22℃附近时，日最大用电负荷最低，当日最高温度高于22℃时，日最高气温越高，日最大用电负荷越大，而当日最高温度低于22℃时，日最高气温越低，日最大用电负荷也越大；当日最低气温在14℃附近时，日最大用电负荷最低，当日最低温度高于14℃时，日最低气温越高，日最大用电负荷越大，而当日最低温度低于14℃时，日最低气温越低，日最大用电负荷也越大；(5) 江苏省夏季日最大电力负荷随着日最高气温的升高而增大，且相关性能达到0.9。利用夏季日最大电力负荷与日最高气温的关系模型能大致预测江苏省夏季最大电力负荷的变化情况，为电力决策部门电力调度提供参考。
Power load variation characteristics are of great significance to the safe operation and economic dispatch of the power grid. This paper studies the characteristics of 2021 power load variation from 2016 to 2021, the results show that: (1) the maximum, minimum and average daily load of Jiangsu province in recent 6 years show a trend of increasing gradually in the fluctuation, below the inter-annual scale, the curve of electric power load has the characteristics of two peaks, winter and summer are two high value areas of electric power load in a year respectively; (2) the daily variation of electric power load in Jiangsu province is very regular, and the lowest value is around 04:00~05:00, then the load rose rapidly, peaked around 11:00, dropped around 12:00, hit a low point around 13:00, then increased and stayed at a high level until the power load started to decrease after 22:00 at night; (3) from April to October, with the increase of temperature, the maximum power load of Jiangsu province showed an increasing trend, the maximum power load in Jiangsu province also shows an increasing trend, and from October to April of the following year, the maximum power load in Jiangsu province also shows an increasing trend as the temperature decreases; (4) the scatter plot of daily maximum power load and daily maximum (minimum) temperature shows a flat “U” shaped distribution. As the daily maximum (minimum) temperature increases, the daily maximum power load shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. When the highest temperature of the day is around 22？C, the daily maximum electricity load is the lowest. When the highest temperature of the day is above 22？C, the higher the daily maximum temperature, the greater the daily maximum electricity load; when the highest temperature of the day is below 22？C, the lower the daily maximum temperature, and the greater the