非契约关系下消费者价类迁移对卷烟结构升级的影响与预测研究——以Y市为例
A Study on the Impact and Prediction of Consumer Price Class Migration on the Upgrading of Cigarette Structure under Non-Contractual Relationships—Taking Y City as an Example

背景和目的：充分运用卷烟消费数据，探究消费者价类迁移与卷烟结构升级的内在联系，进而分析和预测区域市场卷烟消费趋势变化，为挖掘卷烟结构升级着力点指明方向。方法：本文利用消费者历史交易数据，通过提取消费者行为变化特征，衡量消费者活跃度，进而测算和预测各区域不同价类消费者活跃规模，并在此基础上，引入经典的重力模型，从消费者迁移方向和数量入手，构建消费者价类迁移流规模的测算和预测方法。同时，将代表卷烟结构水平的卷烟结构层次系数与一、二类烟迁移规模代入回归模型，以此来分析和预测卷烟市场消费趋势。结论：本文运用该模型对Y市区域市场当前和未来的卷烟消费趋势进行分析和预测。
Background and Purpose: By fully utilizing cigarette consumption data, this study explores the in-ternal relationship between consumer price category migration and cigarette structure upgrading, and then analyzes and predicts changes in cigarette consumption trends in regional markets, providing direction for exploring the focus of cigarette structure upgrading. Method: This article uses historical transaction data of consumers to extract characteristics of consumer behavior changes, measure consumer activity, and then calculate and predict the active scale of different price categories of consumers in different regions. Based on this, a classic gravity model is intro-duced, starting from the direction and quantity of consumer migration, to construct a calculation and prediction method for the scale of consumer price category migration flow. At the same time, the hierarchical coefficient of cigarette structure representing the level of cigarette structure and the migration scale of first and second class cigarettes are substituted into the regression model to analyze and predict the consumption trend of the cigarette market. Conclusion: This article uses this model to analyze and predict the current and future cigarette consumption trends in the re-gional market of Y city.