华中地区碳达峰预测——基于扩展的STIRPAT模型
Carbon Peak Prediction in Central China—Based on Extended STIRPAT Model

本文从我国“双碳”目标出发，以华中地区为研究对象，首先采用IPCC排放因子法对华中地区2005~2021年碳排放量数据进行核算整合，发现该地区在2012年后碳排放量呈现缓慢增长趋势；然后利用人口规模、人均GDP等五个指标建立了扩展的STIRPAT模型，拟合模型R2 = 0.9763，各指标均通过了95%的显著性检验；再运用情景分析法对该地区碳达峰时间及达峰排放量进行预测，预测结果显示该地区碳达峰时间最早出现于2026年，达峰排放量为162,432万吨，最迟达峰时间为2029年，达峰排放量为165,062万吨；最后根据预测结果给出了实现华中地区碳达峰的三条路径。
Starting from China’s “dual-carbon” goal, this paper takes central China as the research object, first-ly, the IPCC emission factor method is used to account for and integrate the carbon emission data of Central China from 2005 to 2021, and it is found that the carbon emissions in this area show a slow growth trend after 2012. Then, an extended STIRPAT model is established by using five indicators, such as population size and per capita GDP. The fitting model R2 = 0.9763, and all indicators have passed the significance test of 95%. Then the scenario analysis method is used to predict the peak carbon time and peak emissions in the region, and the prediction results show that the earliest peak carbon time in the region will occur in 2026, with peak emissions of 1624.32 million tonnes, and the latest peak time will be 2029, with peak emissions of 1650.62 million tonnes. Finally, ac-cording to the forecast results, three paths for carbon peaking in Central China are given.