基于ARIMA模型的上海市GDP分析与预测
Analysis and Forecasting of Shanghai’s GDP Based on ARIMA Model

本GDP是衡量国家或地区经济发展水平和人民生活状况的重要指标，分析与预测GDP未来趋势可以为国家制定和检验经济政策提供参考。上海市作为我国的经济、金融、贸易和航运中心，对全国经济发展起着引领带动作用。因此，文章选取上海市1991~2022年的GDP年度统计数据建立ARIMA模型，对上海市2023~2025年的GDP进行预测。研究结果表明，2023~2025年上海市GDP将持续稳步增长，预测2023~2025年依次为4.97万亿元、5.44万亿元、5.94万亿元。最后，基于模型预测结果并结合上海市经济发展特点为上海市未来经济发展规划提出参考建议。
As an important indicator to measure the level of economic development of a country or region and the living conditions of the people, analyzing and predicting the future trend of GDP can provide a reference for the country to formulate and test economic policies. As the economic, financial, trade and shipping center of China, Shanghai plays a leading role in the national economic development. Therefore, the paper selected the annual statistics of Shanghai’s GDP from 1991 to 2022 and established an ARIMA model to forecast Shanghai’s GDP from 2023 to 2025. The results of the study show that the GDP of Shanghai will continue to grow steadily from 2023 to 2025, and it is predicted to be 4.97 trillion yuan, 5.44 trillion yuan, and 5.94 trillion yuan in sequence from 2023 to 2025. Finally, recommendations are made for the future economic development planning of Shanghai based on the model prediction results and the characteristics of Shanghai’s economic development.