外部冲击、征信与银行股价变动
External Shock, Credit Reporting and Bank Stock Price Fluctuation

本文以美国银行业的四类代表性指数为样本，运用事件研究法量化分析了硅谷银行事件对美国整体银行业市场以及不同规模的银行机构股价波动的影响，并对征信在此过程中的作用进行研究。根据芝加哥期权交易所波动指数、异常收益率、累计超额收益率变化趋势的结果分析研究发现：硅谷银行事件对美国银行业具有较大的负向影响，波动甚广，同时也表明其他银行在受到冲击时，未能及时加强对信贷审查和风控措施，更易受到未及时收集、更新借款人信息和资产质量信息的影响。在此基础上，针对银行业的发展提出了对策建议。
Based on the four representative indexes of the US banking industry, this paper uses the event study method to quantitatively analyze the impact of the Silicon Valley Bank incident on the stock price volatility of the US banking market as a whole and banking institutions of different sizes, and studies the role of credit reporting in this process. According to the analysis of the change trend of volatility index, abnormal return and cumulative excess return of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, it is found that the Silicon Valley Bank incident has a greater negative impact on the U.S. banking industry, with a wide range of fluctuations, and also shows that other banks fail to strengthen credit review and risk control measures in time when they are impacted. It is more vulnerable to the impact of not collecting and updating borrower information and asset quality information in a timely manner. On this basis, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the banking industry.