中国碳市场发展的减排效应及作用机制研究
Study on the Emission Reduction Effect and Role Mechanism of Carbon Market Development in China

为了客观评价我国碳市场发展水平以及检验碳市场的发展是否能有效发挥碳减排效应，本文在考虑碳配额交易市场自身特征的基础上，将碳金融市场发展纳入碳市场发展评价体系，从多维度测度了我国碳市场发展水平。在此基础上，运用连续型双重差分法实证检验碳市场发展的碳减排效应和影响机制。研究表明，碳市场的发展能够有效实现碳减排效应，表现为碳市场的发展水平每提高1%，会使试点地区碳排放量和碳排放强度分别下降0.304%和0.345%。进一步的机制分析发现，能源消费效率提高和能源消费结构转型都是碳市场发展实现碳减排效应的有效途径，并且贡献分解结果表明，两种途径均在促进碳减排过程中发挥了较大的作用。
In order to objectively evaluate the development level of China’s carbon market and test whether the development of the carbon market can effectively play the carbon emission reduction effect, this paper, on the basis of considering the characteristics of the carbon quota trading market itself, incorporates the development of the carbon financial market into the evaluation system of carbon market development, and measures the level of development of China’s carbon market from a multi-dimensional perspective. On this basis, the continuous double difference method is used to empirically test the carbon emission reduction effect and influence mechanism of carbon market development. The study shows that the development of carbon market can effectively achieve the carbon emission reduction effect, which is manifested in the fact that every 1% increase in the development level of carbon market will lead to a decrease of 0.304% and 0.345% in carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in the pilot area, respectively. Further analysis of the mechanism reveals that improving the efficiency of energy consumption and transforming the energy consumption structure are both effective ways to achieve the carbon emission reduction effect of carbon market development, and the results of the contribution decomposition show that both ways play a greater role in promoting the process of carbon emission reduction.