A time
series model was used to screen the causes of changes in the number of rural
elementary schools from 1996 to 2019 related to schools, classes, and students
in rural, township, and urban areas, as well as the birth rate, population growth rate, and urbanization rate, and a VAR
model was developed with five strong influencing factors of rural
classes, students, urban schools, classes, and growth rate of students in
schools and changes in rural schools. The variance decomposition of the model
shows that the continuous reduction of rural classes (student attrition) and
the growth of urban students (rural students’ rural-urban mobility) are the main reasons for the disappearance of rural elementary schools, while the policy of “removing and merging schools” does not have a long-term impact on the disappearance of rural schools
and does not accelerate the disappearance of rural elementary school.
References
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Cai, Z. L., & Kong, L. X. (2014). Plight of and Solution to Rural Education under the Movement of School Closure and Merger. Tsinghua Journal of Education, 2, 114-119.
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Jiang, T. (2020). ‘Compulsory School Merger Program’ Reduce Fertility? Journal of Finance and Economics, 11, 123-137.
[3]
Jin, X. Y., & Wang, J. Y. (2013). In Ten Years, 63 Elementary School Disappeared Every Day in China’s Rural Areas—Where Is Rural Education Headed in the Post-School Abolition Era? Foundamental Education Forum, 2, 5-6.
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Liang, C., & Wang, S. S. (2020). The Influence of Public School Allocation on Human Capital: Evidence from the School Consolidation in China. Economic Research Journal, 9, 138-154.
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Shumway, R. H., & Stoffer, D. S. (2000). Time Series Analysis and Its Applications. Springer, New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3261-0
[8]
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