产业链视角下的经济复杂度与经济增长——基于ARDL模型
Economic Complexity and Economic Growth from the Perspective of the Industrial Chain—Based on the ARDL Model

当前，中国经济增速出现换挡，实现可持续的经济增长成为重要发展目标。相比于GDP，经济复杂度指数更能反映一个国家的产业结构的紧密程度与生产能力水平。本文基于中国1987至2020年投入产出数据，利用平均波及步数法测度了中国经济复杂度指数以及其演变。然后，以经济复杂度指数作为被解释变量，运用ARDL模型进一步探究中国经济发展水平、FDI、以及贸易开放度之间的短期动态效应和长期均衡关系。研究结果表明：(1) 中国经济复杂度呈现上升趋势，2020年经济复杂度为3.058，相对于1987年的2.355，整体上升了29.85%。(2) 边界协整检验结果表明经济发展水平、FDI、贸易开放度与经济复杂度之间存在长期均衡关系，且都具有显著的正向关系。(3) ARDL模型的短期效应表明，经济发展水平、贸易开放度对经济复杂度的影响均与长期均衡关系一致，而FDI在短期发展中，对于经济复杂度的影响并不显著。
Currently, China’s economic growth rate is stagnating and achieving sustainable economic growth has become an important development goal. Compared to GDP, the economic complexity index better reflects the closeness of a country’s industrial structure and the level of productive capacity. Based on China’s input-output data from 1987 to 2020, this paper measures China’s economic complexity index as well as its evolution using the average wave and step method. Then, the short-term dynamic effects and long-term equilibrium relationship between China’s economic development level, FDI, and trade openness are further explored based on the ARDL model with the economic complexity index as the explanatory variable. The results of the study show that: (1) China’s economic complexity is on an upward trend, with an economic complexity of 3.058 in 2020, an overall increase of 29.85% relative to 2.355 in 1987. (2) The results of the boundary co-integration test indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the level of economic development, FDI, trade openness and economic complexity, and all of them have a significant positive relationship. (3) The short-term effects of the ARDL model show that the effects of the level of economic development and trade openness on economic complexity are all consistent with the long-run equilibrium relationship, while the effect of FDI on eco-nomic complexity is not significant in short-term development.