基于变量选择方法的人口出生率影响因素分析
Analysis of Influencing Factors of Population Birth Rate Based on Variable Selection Method

为响应“三孩”政策，研究主要影响人口出生率的因素，并根据各个因素剖析如何促进人口出生率。现有的文献大多是从不同的角度去阐述各个因素分别对人口出生率的影响，或注重某类因素对人口出生率的影响，本文在参考已有研究的基础之上，从经济发展水平、居民生活水平、文化教育和社会保障等方面同时考虑多种因素对人口出生率的影响，运用变量选择的方法进行实证分析，并根据分析结果为促进人口出生率提供针对性的建议。
In response to the “three-child” policy, the main factors affecting the birth rate are studied, and how to promote the birth rate is analyzed according to each factor. Most of the existing literatures ex-plain the impact of various factors on the birth rate from different perspectives, or pay attention to the impact of certain factors on the birth rate. Based on the reference of previous studies, this paper simultaneously considers the impact of various factors on the birth rate from the aspects of eco-nomic development level, residents’ living standard, culture and education, social security, etc. The method of variable selection is used to make an empirical analysis, and according to the analysis results, specific suggestions are provided to promote the birth rate.