股东户数变动与股价波动的关系——基于白酒行业上市公司数据的实证分析
The Relationship between Changes in the Number of Shareholders and Stock Price Fluctuations—Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of Listed Companies in Baijiu Industry

在A股市场中，决定股价短期内波动的因素有很多，难以准确预测。在这些因素中，经前人多方实证研究，股东户数变动毫无疑问是其中重要的因素之一。股东户数是指持有某只股票的股东总数量，是体现股票集中度的重要指标之一。一般的结论认为，股东户数增加意味着机构投资者把股票出售给个人投资者；而股东户数减少就对应着机构投资者从个人投资者手里回收对应股票。因此，股东户数的变动与股价波动的关系实质上是投资者行为影响股票市场从而影响股价波动的过程。对此，本文以2016~2022年20家白酒行业上市公司为研究对象，基于样本公司每季度的财报数据，采用基于多元线性回归的研究方法度量股东户数变动对股价波动的影响。实证结果表明：对于我国20家白酒公司而言，股东户数变动与股价波动呈显著的正向关系，而不是普遍认为的整个股市中的负向关系。本文的研究能够帮助投资者更好地了解白酒行业股价波动的因素，从而降低投资风险，对降低我国金融市场的系统性风险，促进我国金融市场更加完善有重要意义。
In the A-share market, there are many factors that determine the short-term fluctuations of stock prices, which are difficult to accurately predict. Among these factors, the changes in the number of shareholders are undoubtedly one of the important factors that have been empirically studied by previous scholars. The number of shareholders refers to the total number of shareholders holding a certain stock, which is an important indicator of stock concentration. The general conclusion is that an increase in the number of shareholders means that institutional investors are selling stocks to individual investors; the decrease in the number of shareholders corresponds to institutional inves-tors recovering corresponding stocks from individual investors. Therefore, the relationship between changes in the number of shareholders and stock price fluctuations is essentially a process in which investor behavior affects the stock market and thus affects stock price fluctuations. In this regard, this paper takes 20 listed companies in the Baijiu industry from 2016 to 2022 as the research object, based on the quarterly financial report data of the sample companies, and uses the research method based on multiple linear regression to measure the impact of changes in the number of shareholders on stock price fluctuations. The empirical results show that for the 20 Baijiu companies in China, there is a significant positive relationship between the number of shareholders and the fluctuations of stock prices, rather than the generally believed negative relationship in the entire stock market. The research in this paper can help investors better understand the factors of stock price fluctuations in the Baijiu industry, thus reducing investment risk, and is of great significance to reduce the systemic risk of China’s financial market and promote the improvement of China’s financial market.