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空间格局与过程视角下县域人口收缩与粮食安全保障的关系——以我国东北地区为例
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Abstract:
粮食安全是一个国家抵御外部扰动的生计之本，人口收缩是否会威胁粮食生产成为中国甚至世界关注的焦点。本文基于东北地区的人口变化、耕地利用和粮食产量，通过构建耦合协调度模型和聚类模型，探究2010~2020年人口收缩与耕地变化的时空耦合规律以及人口收缩和粮食生产的协同效应。结果表明：(1) 东北地区各类型人口收缩与耕地利用变化耦合协调性良好，人口收缩几乎不会对耕地利用造成显著的负面影响。(2) 东北地区大部分县域耕地面积减少，粮食产量总体呈上升趋势，人口收缩不会显著影响粮食增产速度。(3) 基于人口收缩和粮食生产的关系，东北地区可大致分为：先行发展区，转型提升区和协同滞后区。本研究可为经历人口收缩的粮食主产区未来农业发展路径提供有效参考，并为地方政策制定提供科学的理论依据。
Food security is the foundation for a group to fend off external disturbances. Whether population decline will threaten food production, has become a focal point of concern for China and the world broadly. Based on population changes, land use, and grain output in the northeast region of China, this study constructs a coupling coordination model and a clustering model to explore the spatiotemporal coupling rules between population decline and changes in cultivated land from 2010 to 2020, as well as the synergistic effects of population decline and grain production. The results indicate that: (1) In the northeast region, the coupling coordination between various types of population decline and cultivated land utilization was good. Population shrinkage will hardly have a significant negative impact on cultivated land use. (2) In the northeast region, the cultivated land area of most counties has decreased, but the grain output is generally on the rise, suggesting that population decline will not significantly affect the speed of grain yield increase. (3) Based on the relationship between population decline and grain production, the Northeast region can be roughly divided into the Pioneer Development Zone, Transformational Uplift Zone, and Synergistic Lag Zone. This study can provide an effective reference for the future agricultural development path of major grain-producing areas experiencing population decline and offer a scientific theoretical basis for local policy formulation.
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