The district cooling system (DCS) with ice storage can reduce the peak electricity demand of the business district buildings it serves, improve system efficiency, and lower operational costs. This study utilizes a monitoring and control platform for DCS with ice storage to analyze historical parameter values related to system operation and executed operations. We assess the distribution of cooling loads among various devices within the DCS, identify operational characteristics of the system through correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), and subsequently determine key parameters affecting changes in cooling loads. Accurate forecasting of cooling loads is crucial for determining optimal control strategies. The research process can be summarized briefly as follows: data preprocessing, parameter analysis, parameter selection, and validation of load forecasting performance. The study reveals that while individual devices in the system perform well, there is considerable room for improving overall system efficiency. Six principal components have been identified as input parameters for the cold load forecasting model, with each of these components having eigenvalues greater than 1 and contributing to an accumulated variance of 87.26%, and during the dimensionality reduction process, we obtained a confidence ellipse with a 95% confidence interval. Regarding cooling load forecasting, the Relative Absolute Error (RAE) value of the light gradient boosting machine (lightGBM) algorithm is 3.62%, Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE) is 42.75%, and R-squared value (R2) is 92.96%, indicating superior forecasting performance compared to other commonly used cooling load forecasting algorithms. This research provides valuable insights and auxiliary guidance for data analysis and optimizing operations in practical engineering applications.
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