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未来气候变化对石蒜分布的影响
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Abstract:
石蒜(Lycoris radiata)又名曼珠沙华，是典型的多年生草本鳞茎植物，具有独特的观赏和药用价值。我国是石蒜的主要分布区，探究未来气候变化对石蒜适生区的影响，对保护和利用石蒜种质资源有重要意义。本研究基于我国554个石蒜分布点和4种环境因子(气温、降水、海拔和土壤pH)数据，通过最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测石蒜的当前潜在适生区，及其在2070年不同气候变化情景下(SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5)适生区面积的变化。结果表明：影响石蒜分布的主要环境因子是最干燥季度降水量、年降水量和气温季节性，累计贡献率超过80%；当前气候下石蒜适生区广布于我国南方各省，浙江、江西与湖南省是高适生区；而在人类以消极态度面对气候变化时，石蒜在中、低适生区如江苏、安徽、湖北、四川和两广地区的分布面积将大幅缩减22%以上。建议做好目前中、低适生区石蒜种质资源的优先保护与迁地保护工作，并根据适生区变化调整栽培种植选地规划。
Lycoris radiata, also known as red spider lily, is a typical perennial bulbous perennial herb with unique ornamental and medicinal value. China is the main distribution area of L. radiata, so it is of great significance to study the influence of climate change on the suitable area of L. radiata in China. Based on 554 distribution sites and four environmental factors (temperature, precipitation, elevation and soil pH), the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the changes in current and future suitable areas of L. radiata under two climate change backgrounds (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5- 8.5) in 2070s. The results showed that precipitation in the driest season, annual precipitation and temperature seasonality were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. radiata, with a cumulative contribution of more than 80%. Under the current climate, the suitable areas of L. radiata are widely distributed in the south of China, and Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Hunan provinces are highly suitable areas. However, when humans face climate change with a negative attitude, the distribution area of L. radiata in the middle and low suitable areas, such as Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Sichuan, Guangxi and Guangdong, will be drastically reduced by more than 22%. It is recommended to implement the prioritization schemes and relocation protection of the germplasm resources of L. radiata in the middle and low suitable areas, and the cultivation site selection planning should be adjusted according to the changes of suitability areas under climate changes.
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