1970~2010年云南农田生产潜力时空演变特征及影响因素分析
Spatial-Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors Analysis of Farmland Production Potential in Yunnan from 1970 to 2010

云南省区域内部地貌立体地形复杂多样，独特的地理条件造就了多样化自然条件组合，农业环境中不同组分的改变会对粮食生产系统产生影响，现有农田生产潜力计算模型估算结果总量变化经验证能够拟合实际粮食产量。本文以云南省的129个县作为基本研究单元，分析了1970年至2010年间每十年一个时间节点下的农田生产潜力空间格局的变化特征，为定义出农田生产潜力增产限制因素，选择年平均气温、降水、耕地面积、地形起伏度作为影响因素参与分析，增加县域人口总数、GDP总量作为社会经济要素分析是否与农田生产潜力存在相关关系。使用ArcGIS 10.2中栅格计算、重心分析、莫兰指数、热点分析、地理加权回归分析等工具进行实验操作，实验结果表明：1970至2010年50年间云南省农田生产潜力总体呈逐渐增长趋势，高值增长区县数量集中连片分布于云南省中部；在研究时段内农田生产潜力重心移动速度较慢波动幅度小，说明农田生产潜力空间分布格局较稳定；农田生产潜力高值区多集中于耕地面积资源丰富地形起伏度小的地区且人口数量与农田生产潜力也存在相关关系。
The topography within the Yunnan Province is characterized by complex and diverse terrain, creating unique geographical conditions and a diverse combination of natural elements. Changes in different components of the agricultural environment can significantly impact the grain production system. The results of the existing farmland production potential calculation model have been validated to effectively estimate actual grain production. This study takes the 129 counties of Yunnan Province as the basic research units and analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of farmland Production potential from 1970 to 2010, with each decade as a time node. In order to define the limiting factors of increasing production potential of farmland, annual average temperature, precipitation, cultivated land area and topographic relief were selected as influencing factors to participate in the analysis, and the total population and GDP of the county were also increased as social and economic factors to analyze whether there is a correlation with farmland production potential. The grid calculation, gravity center analysis, Moran index, hot spot analysis, Geographic Weighted Regression Analysis and other tools in ArcGIS10.2 were used for experimental operation. The experimental results showed that the farmland production potential of Yunnan Province showed a gradual growth trend in the 50 years from 1970 to 2010, the number of districts and counties with high value growth was concentrated in the central part of Yunnan Province. During the study period, the center of gravity of farmland production potential moves slowly and fluctuates less, indicating that the spatial distribution pattern of farmland production potential is stable. The high value areas of farmland production potential are mainly concentrated in the areas with rich arable land resources and small topographic relief, and there was also a correlation between population quantity and farmland production potential.