珠三角城际人口流动网络特征及影响因素
Characteristics of the Pearl River Delta Intercity Population Mobility Network and Influencing Factors

把握城市人口流动的规律和趋势对人口政策、城乡规划、社会保障的制定具有重要意义。基于高德迁徙大数据，采用社会网络分析方法、QAP回归模型，探究珠三角城际人口流动网络特征及影响因素。研究发现：1) 珠三角城际人口流动频繁，呈现出“n + v”字型的空间格局，人口流动具有地理邻近性特征。“广佛莞深”四个城市构成人口流动网络的基本骨架。2) 珠三角地区的人口流动具有明显的经济指向，表现为广州和佛山作为人口净流入地区，而深圳、中山、惠州和珠海的人口流动相对平衡，肇庆地区则呈现人口净流出的特点。3) 珠三角地区的城际人口流动存在小团体的现象。东莞和深圳两个城市的人口流动派系重叠度较高，表明这两个城市的人口与其他城市之间的联系紧密，并且在人口流动中扮演着重要的角色。4) QAP回归结果表明，收入水平、对外开放水平、经济水平和网络设施水平是影响珠三角城市群人口流动的主要影响因素。
Grasping the laws and trends of urban population mobility is of great significance to the formulation of population policy, urban and rural planning, and social security. Based on the Gaode Migration Big Data, the social network analysis method and QAP regression model are used to explore the characteristics of inter-city population mobility network and influencing factors in the Pearl River Delta. The study found that inter-city population flows in the PRD are frequent, showing an “n + v” spatial pattern, and population flows are characterized by geographic proximity. The four cities of “Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and Shenzhen” constitute the basic skeleton of the population mobility network. Population movement in the PRD region has a clear economic orientation, manifesting itself in Guangzhou and Foshan as net inflow areas, while Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Huizhou and Zhuhai are relatively balanced in terms of population movement, and the Zhaoqing region is characterized by a net outflow of population. The phenomenon of cliques exists in intercity population movements in the PRD region. Dongguan and Shenzhen have a high degree of overlap in population mobility factions, indicating that the populations of these two cities have strong ties with other cities and play an important role in population mobility. The results of the QAP regression indicate that income level, openness to the outside world, economic level and level of network facilities are the main influences on population mobility in the PRD city clusters.