This research introduces a novel hybrid architecture that combines deep learning, data-driven algorithms, and an affinity propagation-based approach to build robust investment portfolios. This study evaluates the efficacy of BiLSTM and BiGRU in constructing resilient portfolios of stocks from diverse sectors under varying market conditions. The results highlight the superior performance of BiGRU, particularly in dynamic and volatile market scenarios. The research emphasizes the importance of precise stock prediction and effective diversification for building resilient portfolios, leveraging advanced techniques from deep learning and data-driven optimization. Comparative analyses indicate similar performance between portfolios constructed with actual and predicted data using data-driven optimization. The findings offer valuable insights into constructing robust portfolios by employing advanced techniques, thereby enhancing decision-making in financial markets.
References
[1]
Markowitz, H. (1952) Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7, 77-91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x
[2]
Fabozzi, F.J., Gupta, F. and Markowitz, H.M. (2002) The Legacy of Modern Portfolio Theory. The Journal of Investing, 11, 7-22. https://doi.org/10.3905/joi.2002.319510
[3]
Mossin, J. (1966) Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market. Econometrica, 34, 768-783. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910098
[4]
Treynor, J.L. (1962) Toward a Theory of Market Value of Risky Assets. Risk Books, 15-22.
[5]
Lintner, J. (1965) The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47, 13-37. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924119
[6]
Sharpe, W.F. (1964) Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. The Journal of Finance, 19, 425-442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
[7]
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (2004) The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, 25-46. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330042162430
[8]
Solnik, B. (1983) International Arbitrage Pricing Theory. The Journal of Finance, 38, 449-457. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1983.tb02251.x
[9]
Cheung, W. (2010) The Black-Litterman Model Explained. Journal of Asset Management, 11, 229-243. https://doi.org/10.1057/jam.2009.28
[10]
Costa, G. and Kwon, R.H. (2018) Risk Parity Portfolio Optimization under a Markov Regime-Switching Framework. Quantitative Finance, 19, 453-471. https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2018.1486036
[11]
Broadie, M. (1993) Computing Efficient Frontiers Using Estimated Parameters. Annals of Operations Research, 45, 21-58. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02282040
[12]
Detemple, J.B., Garcia, R. and Rindisbacher, M. (2003) A Monte Carlo Method for Optimal Portfolios. The Journal of Finance, 58, 401-446. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00529
[13]
Pai, G.A.V. (2017) Metaheuristics for Portfolio Optimization. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119482840
[14]
Sharpe, W.F. (1966) Mutual Fund Performance. The Journal of Business, 39, 119-138. https://doi.org/10.1086/294846
[15]
Zhao, Y. and Yang, G. (2023) Deep Learning-Based Integrated Framework for Stock Price Movement Prediction. Applied Soft Computing, 133, Article ID: 109921. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2022.109921
[16]
M, H., E.A., G., Menon, V.K. and K.P., S. (2018) NSE Stock Market Prediction Using Deep-Learning Models. Procedia Computer Science, 132, 1351-1362. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2018.05.050
[17]
Sirisha, U.M., Belavagi, M.C. and Attigeri, G. (2022) Profit Prediction Using ARIMA, SARIMA and LSTM Models in Time Series Forecasting: A Comparison. IEEE Access, 10, 124715-124727. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2022.3224938
[18]
Kumbure, M.M., Lohrmann, C., Luukka, P. and Porras, J. (2022) Machine Learning Techniques and Data for Stock Market Forecasting: A Literature Review. Expert Systems with Applications, 197, Article ID: 116659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.116659
[19]
Shahi, T.B., Shrestha, A., Neupane, A. and Guo, W. (2020) Stock Price Forecasting with Deep Learning: A Comparative Study. Mathematics, 8, Article 1441. https://doi.org/10.3390/math8091441
[20]
Pintelas, E., Livieris, I.E., Stavroyiannis, S., Kotsilieris, T. and Pintelas, P. (2020) Investigating the Problem of Cryptocurrency Price Prediction: A Deep Learning Approach. In: Maglogiannis, I., Iliadis, L. and Pimenidis, E., Eds., Artificial Intelligence Applications and Innovations, Springer, 99-110. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-49186-4_9
[21]
Ban, G., El Karoui, N. and Lim, A.E.B. (2018) Machine Learning and Portfolio Optimization. Management Science, 64, 1136-1154. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2644
[22]
Chen, W., Zhang, H., Mehlawat, M.K. and Jia, L. (2021) Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization Using Machine Learning-Based Stock Price Prediction. Applied Soft Computing, 100, Article ID: 106943. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106943
[23]
Paiva, F.D., Cardoso, R.T.N., Hanaoka, G.P. and Duarte, W.M. (2019) Decision-making for Financial Trading: A Fusion Approach of Machine Learning and Portfolio Selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 115, 635-655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2018.08.003
[24]
Zhang, Z., Zohren, S. and Roberts, S. (2020) Deep Learning for Portfolio Optimization. The Journal of Financial Data Science, 2, 8-20. https://doi.org/10.3905/jfds.2020.1.042
[25]
Ma, Y., Han, R. and Wang, W. (2021) Portfolio Optimization with Return Prediction Using Deep Learning and Machine Learning. Expert Systems with Applications, 165, Article ID: 113973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113973
[26]
Cao, H.K., Cao, H.K. and Nguyen, B.T. (2020) Delafo: An Efficient Portfolio Optimization Using Deep Neural Networks. In: Lauw, H., Wong, R.W., Ntoulas, A., Lim, E.P., Ng, S.K. and Pan, S., Eds., Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Springer, 623-635. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47426-3_48
[27]
Sharma, M. and Shekhawat, H.S. (2022) Portfolio Optimization and Return Prediction by Integrating Modified Deep Belief Network and Recurrent Neural Network. Knowledge-Based Systems, 250, Article ID: 109024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2022.109024
[28]
Singh, P., Jha, M., Sharaf, M., El-Meligy, M.A. and Gadekallu, T.R. (2023) Harnessing a Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model for Portfolio Performance: A Case Study on Stock Selection and Optimization. IEEE Access, 11, 104000-104015. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2023.3317953
[29]
Cui, T., Du, N., Yang, X. and Ding, S. (2024) Multi-period Portfolio Optimization Using a Deep Reinforcement Learning Hyper-Heuristic Approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 198, Article ID: 122944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122944
[30]
Thavaneswaran, A., Liang, Y., Yu, N., Paseka, A. and Thulasiram, R.K. (2021) Novel Data-Driven Resilient Portfolio Risk Measures Using Sign and Volatility Correlations. 2021 IEEE 45th Annual Computers, Software, and Applications Conference (COMPSAC), Madrid, 12-16 July 2021, 1742-1747. https://doi.org/10.1109/compsac51774.2021.00260
[31]
Bowala, S. and Singh, J. (2022) Optimizing Portfolio Risk of Cryptocurrencies Using Data-Driven Risk Measures. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15, Article 427. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15100427
[32]
Choueifaty, Y. and Coignard, Y. (2008) Toward Maximum Diversification. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35, 40-51. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2008.35.1.40
[33]
Das, J.D., Bowala, S., Thulasiram, R.K. and Thavaneswaran, A. (2023) Resilient Portfolio Optimization Using Traditional and Data-Driven Models for Cryptocurrencies and Stocks. 2023 IEEE 47th Annual Computers, Software, and Applications Conference (COMPSAC), Torino, 26-30 June 2023, 1343-1348. https://doi.org/10.1109/compsac57700.2023.00204
[34]
Das, J.D., Bowala, S., Thulasiram, R.K. and Thavaneswaran, A. (2023) Portfolio Diversification with Clustering Techniques. 2023 IEEE Symposium Series on Computational Intelligence (SSCI), Mexico City, 5-8 December 2023, 97-102. https://doi.org/10.1109/ssci52147.2023.10371938
[35]
Rundo, F., Trenta, F., di Stallo, A.L. and Battiato, S. (2019) Machine Learning for Quantitative Finance Applications: A Survey. Applied Sciences, 9, Article 5574. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9245574
[36]
Vijh, M., Chandola, D., Tikkiwal, V.A. and Kumar, A. (2020) Stock Closing Price Prediction Using Machine Learning Techniques. Procedia Computer Science, 167, 599-606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2020.03.326
[37]
Yang, Y. and Hospedales, T.M. (2023) An Evaluation of Self-Supervised Learning for Portfolio Diversification. In: Iliadis, L., Papaleonidas, A., Angelov, P. and Jayne, C., Eds., Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning—ICANN 2023, Springer, 283-294. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-44213-1_24
[38]
Jaimungal, S. (2021) Reinforcement Learning and Stochastic Optimisation. Finance and Stochastics, 26, 103-129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-021-00467-2
[39]
Snow, D. (2020) Machine Learning in Asset Management—Part 2: Portfolio Construction—Weight Optimization. The Journal of Financial Data Science, 2, 17-24. https://doi.org/10.3905/jfds.2020.1.029
[40]
Kaczmarek, T. and Perez, K. (2021) Building Portfolios Based on Machine Learning Predictions. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35, 19-37. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677x.2021.1875865
[41]
Jiang, Z., Ji, R. and Chang, K. (2020) A Machine Learning Integrated Portfolio Rebalance Framework with Risk-Aversion Adjustment. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13, Article 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13070155
[42]
Behera, J., Pasayat, A.K., Behera, H. and Kumar, P. (2023) Prediction Based Mean-Value-at-Risk Portfolio Optimization Using Machine Learning Regression Algorithms for Multi-National Stock Markets. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 120, Article ID: 105843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2023.105843
[43]
Hu, Z., Zhao, Y. and Khushi, M. (2021) A Survey of Forex and Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning. Applied System Innovation, 4, Article 9. https://doi.org/10.3390/asi4010009
[44]
Jiang, W. (2021) Applications of Deep Learning in Stock Market Prediction: Recent Progress. Expert Systems with Applications, 184, Article ID: 115537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2021.115537
[45]
Nikou, M., Mansourfar, G. and Bagherzadeh, J. (2019) Stock Price Prediction Using DEEP Learning Algorithm and Its Comparison with Machine Learning Algorithms. Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, 26, 164-174. https://doi.org/10.1002/isaf.1459
[46]
Fernández, A. and Gómez, S. (2007) Portfolio Selection Using Neural Networks. Computers & Operations Research, 34, 1177-1191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2005.06.017
[47]
Uysal, A.S., Li, X. and Mulvey, J.M. (2023) End-to-end Risk Budgeting Portfolio Optimization with Neural Networks. Annals of Operations Research, [volume], [page]. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05539-4
[48]
Yu, L., Wang, S. and Lai, K.K. (2008) Neural Network-Based Mean-Variance-Skewness Model for Portfolio Selection. Computers & Operations Research, 35, 34-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2006.02.012
[49]
Jang, J. and Seong, N. (2023) Deep Reinforcement Learning for Stock Portfolio Optimization by Connecting with Modern Portfolio Theory. Expert Systems with Applications, 218, Article ID: 119556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.119556
[50]
Yang, S. (2023) Deep Reinforcement Learning for Portfolio Management. Knowledge-Based Systems, 278, Article ID: 110905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2023.110905
[51]
Ngo, V.M., Nguyen, H.H. and Van Nguyen, P. (2023) Does Reinforcement Learning Outperform Deep Learning and Traditional Portfolio Optimization Models in Frontier and Developed Financial Markets? Research in International Business and Finance, 65, Article ID: 101936. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101936
[52]
Xia, K., Huang, J. and Wang, H. (2020) LSTM-CNN Architecture for Human Activity Recognition. IEEE Access, 8, 56855-56866. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2020.2982225
[53]
Luo, L. (2018) Network Text Sentiment Analysis Method Combining LDA Text Representation and GRU-CNN. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing, 23, 405-412. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00779-018-1183-9
[54]
Kim, T. and Kim, H.Y. (2019) Forecasting Stock Prices with a Feature Fusion LSTM-CNN Model Using Different Representations of the Same Data. PLOS ONE, 14, e0212320. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212320
[55]
Pierre, A.A., Akim, S.A., Semenyo, A.K. and Babiga, B. (2023) Peak Electrical Energy Consumption Prediction by ARIMA, LSTM, GRU, ARIMA-LSTM and ARIMA-GRU Approaches. Energies, 16, Article 4739. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16124739
[56]
Lu, W., Li, J., Wang, J. and Qin, L. (2020) A CNN-BILSTM-AM Method for Stock Price Prediction. Neural Computing and Applications, 33, 4741-4753. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-05532-z
[57]
Pramesti, M.I., Indikawati, F.I. and Prahara, A. (2022) Multivariate Time Series Stock Price Data Prediction in the Banking Sector in Indonesia Using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (biLSTM). Signal and Image Processing Letters, 4, 28-37.
[58]
Malla, J., Lavanya, C., Jayashree, J. and Vijayashree, J. (2022) Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU)-Based Bitcoin Price Prediction by News Sentiment Analysis. In: Reddy, V.S., Prasad, V.K., Wang, J. and Reddy, K.T.V., Eds., Soft Computing and Signal Processing. ICSCSP 2022, Springer, 31-40. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8669-7_4
[59]
Yamak, P.T., Yujian, L. and Gadosey, P.K. (2019) A Comparison between ARIMA, LSTM, and GRU for Time Series Forecasting. Proceedings of the 2019 2nd International Conference on Algorithms, Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Sanya, 20-22 December 2019, 49-55. https://doi.org/10.1145/3377713.3377722