It is clear from the literature data that the geometric characteristics of the seismogenic source are directly related to the nucleation of their strong earthquakes. Our study starts from the observation of the proximity relationship between the epicenter of a strong earthquake and the surface trace of the seismogenic source. The proposed model is based on the mathematical analysis of seismicity falling within an area, through a polynomial function to determine a curve. The experimental results of our model confirm that 97% of the epicenters of strong earthquakes are located near the concavities or at the inflection points of the polynomial curve. Only 3% of strong earthquakes are located at the edges of the analyzed areas, where the number of data is not significant. The proposed model makes it possible to locate, with good approximation, the areas most likely to be the site of future strong earthquakes.
References
[1]
Tiampo, K.F. and Shcherbakov, R. (2012) Seismicity-Based Earthquake Forecasting Techniques: Ten Years of Progress. Tectonophysics, 522, 89-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2011.08.019
[2]
Huang, Q. (2015) Forecasting the Epicenter of a Future Major Earthquake. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, 944-945. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423684112
[3]
Riga, G. and Balocchi, P. (2021) Methods for Determining the Epicenter of Strong Earthquake. Open Journal of Earthquake Research, 10, 42-67. https://doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2021.102004
[4]
Wyss, M. and Brune, J.N. (1967) The Alaska Earthquake of 28 March 1964: A Complex Multiple Rupture. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 57, 1017-1023. https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0570051017
[5]
Lay, T., Kanamori, H. and Ruff, L. (1982) The Asperity Model and the Nature of Large Subduction Zone Earthquakes. Earthquake Prediction Research, 1, 3-72.
[6]
Aki, K. (1984) Asperities, Barriers, Characteristic Earthquakes and Strong Motion Prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 89, 5867-5872. https://doi.org/10.1029/jb089ib07p05867
[7]
Wyss, M., Schorlemmer, D. and Wiemer, S. (2000) Mapping Asperities by Minima of Local Recurrence Time: San Jacinto‐Elsinore Fault Zones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 105, 7829-7844. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999jb900347
[8]
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS): Search Earthquake Archives. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
[9]
INGV: Dati in Tempo Reale-Terremoti. http://terremoti.ingv.it/
Alvarado, G.E., Benito, B., Staller, A., Climent, Á., Camacho, E., Rojas, W., et al. (2017) The New Central American Seismic Hazard Zonation: Mutual Consensus Based on up to Day Seismotectonic Framework. Tectonophysics, 721, 462-476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2017.10.013
[12]
Luna, R. (2010) Reconnaissance Report of the May 28, 2009 Honduras Earthquake, M 7.3. https://scholarsmine.mst.edu/icrageesd/05icrageesd/session13/3
