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Wavelet Multiview-Based Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Forecasting El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation Cycles

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2024.144027, PP. 450-473

Keywords: El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Autoencoders, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR)

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Abstract:

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature v5 (ERSSTv5) climate model. The M-band discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) are utilized to capture multi-scale temporal and spatial features effectively. Long-short term memory (LSTM) autoencoders are also used to capture significant spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data. Deep learning techniques such as the convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used with non-image and image time series data. We also employ parallel computing in a various support vector regression (SVR) approximators to enhance accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that this hybrid model effectively identifies key precursors and patterns associated with El Ni?o events, surpassing traditional forecasting methods. Results of the hybrid model produce a correlation of 0.93 in 4-month lagged forecasting of the Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI)—indicative of high success rate of the model. Future work will focus on evaluating the model’s performance using additional reanalysis datasets and other methods of deep learning to further refine its robustness and applicability. We propose wavelet-based deep learning models which have potential to shine a light on achieving United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’s goal 13: “Climate Action”, as an innovation with potential in improving time series image forecasting in all fields.

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