Empirical Evaluation of a Preliminary Model to Identify Low-Risk MBA Applicants

This article reports on the second stage of the model, namely to empiricallyevaluate the model’s performance and validity across all threeof the identified categories. These categories are ‘Low-to-no risk’ applicantsfor the MBA; and those applicants who did not complete thedegree in 3 years, classified as ‘Medium-to-low risk’ applicants who areexpected to complete their degree in extended study year, and ‘High-risk’applicants who are not expected to complete their degrees and whodrop out of the programme. The final-year MBA students at the PBS in2004 and 2005 served as the research population. The results were verysatisfactory. Concerning the categories Low-to-no risk and Medium-to-lowrisk applicants, the model can be used as predictive tool, presentinga validity higher than 60% (p = 0.9) and 90% (p = 0.7) respectively.Caution, however, looms at the category of High-risk applicants wherethe model judges too harshly with an error of 13.7% (p = 0.7).