Development of a Screening Tool to Improve Management of the Welfare Caseload in Kentucky

As part of the evaluation of the welfare program in Kentucky, descriptive and multivariate techniques were used to develop and test a brief screening tool. The purpose of this tool is to identify clients at risk of using 80% or more of the lifetime limit for cash assistance provided through the Kentucky’s Transitional Assistance Program (KTAP). The variables for the screening tool were identified through discriminant analysis and logistic regression using data from the KTAP administrative records and from two surveys: a panel study conducted with a representative group of KTAP recipients, and a point-in-time survey conducted with a representative sample of clients who reached their lifetime limit of cash assistance in 2001. Descriptive analyses using panel data show the stability of measures over time and their ability to set apart the segment of population at risk for high utilization of their available time on KTAP. The predictive value of the screening tool was tested with regression models using the KTAP utilization information available from the administrative records.