Using a regionally disaggregated global energy system
model with a detailed treatment of the natural gas resource base, this paper
analyzes the competitiveness of coalbed methane and shale gas in the global
primary energy mix and the cost-optimal pattern of their production in regional
detail over the period 2010-2050 under a constraint of halving global
energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the 2000 level. It
is first shown that neither coalbed methane nor shale gas could become an
important fuel in the global primary energy mix throughout the time horizon,
although each of them could become an important source of world natural gas
production from around 2030 onwards. It is then shown that unlike findings of
previous studies, coalbed methane would be more attractive than shale gas as a
primary energy source globally under the CO2 constraint used here.
The results indicate that North America continues to be the world’s largest
coalbed methane producer until 2030, after which China overtakes North America
and retains this position until 2050. Also, India, Russia, South Africa, and
Australia contribute noticeably to world coalbed methane production. The
results also indicate that North America continues to dominate world shale gas
production until 2040, after which a number of world regions, notably India,
Europe, and China, begin to participate visibly in world shale gas production.
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