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冰川冻土  2015 

气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献

DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2015.0054, PP. 470-479

Keywords: 气候变化,人类活动,径流,贡献率,辽河

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Abstract:

辽河中上游地区腹地是科尔沁沙地,河流径流是其重要补给源,研究径流及其变化原因对水资源合理开发利用、生态环境治理有重要的实践意义.以辽河中上游地区下洼、福山地、乌丹3个典型水文站点为基础,将气候变化归结为水热条件变化,通过改进的累积量斜率变化率比较法,定量分析径流变化、气候变化和人类活动对径流变化量的贡献.结果表明径流量多年来呈减少趋势,随降水的增加而增加,随平均气温的升高而减少.径流量在2000年代最小,相对1990年代减少了45.89%~82.13%.径流突变点为1995年和1998年,1995-2010年(1999-2010年)与1957-1994年(1957-1998年)相比,下洼、福山地、乌丹站控制流域气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为41.57%、60.20%和36.76%,人类活动贡献率分别为58.43%、39.80%和63.24%.

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