全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

CIECIA:一个新的气候变化集成评估模型及其对全球合作减排方案的评估

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-015-5141-3, PP. 1575-1596

Keywords: 集成评估模型,全球合作减排方案,一般均衡,过程技术进步,帕累托改进

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

?针对目前主流的IAM的缺陷,从全球经济一般均衡和技术进步的角度出发,构建了一个新的气候变化经济学集成评估模型:CIECIA.CIECIA的经济内核由一个多国多部门一般均衡模型构成,保障了全球一般均衡,克服了主流模型的不足,并引入了分部门的内生的过程技术进步机制.在模型的基础上,本文提出了全球气候保护合作方案的三个评估原则:有效性、可行性和公平性,并对当前主要的全球碳减排方案进行了模拟和分析.模拟结果显示:本文选择分析的6种方案都能满足到2100年的气候保护目标,因此都是有效的合作减排方案,但各方案在可行性和公平性上差别较大.其中,Stern方案有利于发达国家的发展,对发展中国家不公平;Nordhaus方案则有利于发展中国家发展,但会对发达国家造成一定的影响;人均碳排放趋同和累计人均碳排放趋同方案对中低发展中国家较为有利,但是会对包括中国在内的世界主要经济体的经济发展造成较大的影响;在经济平稳增长方案上改进得到的帕累托改进方案兼顾碳减排过程中的公平性和可行性,实现了所有减排参与国经济利益的帕累托改进,因此最为合理.

References

[1]  Stanton E A, Ackerman F, Kartha S. 2009. Inside the integrated assessment models: Four issues in climate economics. Clim Dev, 1: 166-184
[2]  Stern N. 2006. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Report to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer on the Economics of Climate Change. London, United Kingdom
[3]  Stern N. 2007. The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
[4]  Svirezhev Y, Brovkin V, von Bloh W, Schellnhuber H J, Petschel-Held G. 1999. Optimisation of reduction of global CO2 emission based on a simple model of the carbon cycle. Environ Model Assess, 4: 23-33
[5]  Tol R S J. 2001. Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: Benchmark estimates. Environ Res Econ, 21: 47-73
[6]  Tol R S J. 1997. On the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions: An application of FUND. Environ Model Assess, 2: 151-163
[7]  UNDP. 2007. Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World. Human Development Report, 2007/2008. Oxford: Oxford University Press
[8]  United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York: United Nations
[9]  Wang Z, Zhang S, Wu J. 2012. A new RICEs model with the global emission reduction schemes. Chin Sci Bull, 57: 4373-4380
[10]  Weitzman M L. 2009. On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change. Rev Econ Stat, 91: 1-19
[11]  Weyant J P, Davidson O, Dowlatabadi H, Edmonds J A, Grubb M J, Parson E A, Richels R G, Rotmans J, Shukla P R, Tol R S J, Cline W R, Fankhauser S. 1996. Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results. In: Bruce J P, Lee H, Haites E F, eds. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 367-396
[12]  Whitman S, Good G, Donoghue E, Benbow N, Shou W, Mou S. 1997. Mortality in Chicago attributed to the July 1995 heat wave. Amer J Publ Health, 87: 1515-1518
[13]  陈文颖, 吴宗鑫, 何建坤. 2005. 全球未来碳排放权"两个趋同"的分配方法. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 45: 850-853
[14]  丁仲礼, 段晓男, 葛全胜, 张志强. 2009. 2050年大气CO2浓度控制: 各国排放权计算. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 39: 1009-1027
[15]  顾高翔, 王铮. 2014. 技术进步推动下的多国多部门碳排放与能源使用趋势研究. 城市与环境研究, 1: 56-74
[16]  何建坤, 刘滨, 陈文颖. 2004. 有关全球气候变化问题上的公平性分析. 中国人口资源与环境, 14: 12-15
[17]  刘昌新. 2013. 新型集成评估模型的构建与全球减排合作方案研究. 博士学位论文. 北京: 中国科学院大学
[18]  王铮, 刘筱, 刘昌新, 田园, 黄蕊. 2014. 气候变化伦理的若干问题探讨. 中国科学: 地球科学, 44: 1600-1608
[19]  王铮, 蒋轶红, 吴静, 郑一萍, 黎华群. 2006. 技术进步作用下中国CO2减排的可能性. 生态学报, 26: 423-431
[20]  吴静, 朱潜挺, 刘昌新, 王铮. 2014. DICE/RICE模型中碳循环模块的比较研究. 生态学报, 34: 6734-6744
[21]  张帅. 2012. IAM的RICE簇气候保护政策模拟系统设计与实现. 硕士学位论文. 北京: 中国科学院研究生院
[22]  朱潜挺. 2012. 含碳交易环节的气候保护集成评估模型研究. 博士学位论文. 北京: 中国科学院研究生院
[23]  Abel A B. 2003. The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of social security. Econometrica, 71: 551-78
[24]  Ackerman F, DeCanio S J, Howarth R B, Sheeran K. 2009. Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change. Clim Change, 95: 297-315
[25]  Akhtar M, Wibe J, Simonovicc S P, MacGeed J. 2013. Integrated assessment model of society-biosphere-climate-economy energy system. Environ Model Softw, 49: 1-21
[26]  Bosetti V, Massetti E, Tavoni M. 2007. The WITCH model structure, baseline, solutions. FEEM Working Paper Series, No. 10-2007
[27]  Buchner B, Carraro C. 2005. Modelling climate policy: Perspectives on future negotiations. J Policy Model, 27: 711-732
[28]  Buonanno P, Carraro C, Galeotti M. 2003. Endogenous induced technical change and the costs of Kyoto. Res Energy Econ, 25: 11-34
[29]  IPCC. 2014. IPCC Assessment Report 5, Mitigation of Climate Change
[30]  Jin K. 2012. Industrial structure and capital flows. Amer Econ Rev, 102: 2111-2146
[31]  Kelly D L, Kolstad C D. 1999. Integrated assessment models for climate change control. In: Folmer H, Tietenberg T, eds. International Yearbook of Environmental and Resource Economics 1999/2000: A Survey of Current Issues. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. 171-197
[32]  Lee H, Oliveira-Martins J, van der Mensbrugghe D. 1994. The OECD GREEN Model: An Updated Overview. OCED Development Centre, Working Paper 97. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
[33]  Lorentz A, Savona M. 2008. Evolutionary micro-dynamics and changes in the economic structure. J Evol Econ, 18: 389-412
[34]  Manne A S, Mendelsohn R, Richels R. 1995. MERGE: A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies. Energy Policy, 23: 17-34
[35]  Narayanan B G, Walmsley T L, Narayanan B G. 2008. Global trade, assistance, and production: The GTAP 7 data base. Washington DC: Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University
[36]  Nelson R R, Winter S G. 1982. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press
[37]  Nordhaus W D. 1992. An optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases. Science, 258: 1315-1319
[38]  Nordhaus W D. 2008. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies. New Haven: Yale University Press
[39]  Nordhaus W D, Yang Z. 1996. Regional dynamic general-equilibrium model of alternative climate-change strategies. Amer Econom Rev, 86: 741-746
[40]  Paltsev S, Reilly J M, Jacoby H D, Eckaus R S, McFarland J R, Sarofim M C, Asadoorian M O, Babiker M H M. 2005. The MIT emissions prediction and policy analysis (EPPA) model: Version 4. MIT Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change. Report No. 125. Cambridge, MA
[41]  Pizer W A. 1999. The optimal choice of climate change policy in the presence of uncertainty. Res Energy Econ, 21: 255-287
[42]  Rotmans J. 1990. IMAGE: An Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect. Netherlands: Kluwer
[43]  Schneider S H. 1997. Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value-laden assumptions? Environ Model Assess, 2: 229-249

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133