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地理科学  2015 

气候变化背景下东北地区气象干旱的时空演变特征

, PP. 1051-1059

Keywords: 干旱,标准化降水指数,时空模式,气候变化,东北地区

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Abstract:

基于中国东北地区98个气象站点历史数据和WCRP多模式耦合CMIP3输出的IPCCSRESA1B、A2和B1气候变化情景下的降雨资料,计算3、6、12和24个月尺度上的标准化降水指数(SPI),结合M-K检测、EOF分解和小波分析,研究东北地区干旱的时空变化格局及其对气候变化的响应特征。结果表明①SPI能较好地检测东北地区干湿变化状况,4个时间尺度上主要的空间模态具相似的分布型,其中12个月尺度SPI显示东北大部分地区在过去50a干旱程度呈显著加剧、范围有明显扩大的趋势,其中南部和中部辽河流域是干旱严重区;②干旱时间变化特征具明显的空间差异,南部干旱第一主周期为11a,北部则为3.5a;③气候变化情景下,2011~2060年的干旱以前30a趋强,之后趋缓,且干旱高发区存在一定的北移趋势。

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