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化工学报  2015 

基于改进支持向量机的高炉一氧化碳利用率预测方法

DOI: 10.11949/j.issn.0438-1157.20141482, PP. 206-214

Keywords: 高炉,一氧化碳,建模,支持向量机,预测,自适应粒子群

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Abstract:

高炉冶炼是一个具有非线性、大时滞、大噪声、分布参数等特征的高度复杂生产过程。针对目前高炉现场以焦比为能耗评价指标却无法提供实时指导的问题,研究以一氧化碳利用率为能耗评价指标,提出一种基于改进支持向量机的高炉一氧化碳利用率预测方法。首先分析高炉炼铁过程机理,结合互信息法得出影响一氧化碳利用率的相关操作因素。然后鉴于生产数据含噪高的特点,采用小波去噪方法去除数据噪声干扰,并且利用灰色相对关联度分析方法对操作参数进行时序配准,消除时滞影响,建立高炉一氧化碳利用率预测模型。在建模过程中,将自适应粒子群与支持向量机回归方法相结合,以克服模型参数选择的随机性,提高了模型预测精度。现场实际数据的预测结果表明所提出方法的有效性,能够实时精确地预测高炉一氧化碳利用率,为后续高炉的优化操作和节能减排提供了及时有效的决策支持。

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