全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

IPCCAR5全球气候模式对1996-2005年中国气温模拟精度评价

DOI: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.10.003, PP. 1229-1240

Keywords: IPCC,AR5,全球气候模式,气温,精度,日尺度

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

本文利用中国660个站点逐日地面温度资料,评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次报告(IPCCAR5)的9个全球气候模式(GlobalClimateModels,GCMs)及多模式集合(Multi-ModelEnsemble,MME)对中国地区气温的模拟精度。结果表明9个IPCCAR5全球气候模式和MME模拟的中国地区1996-2005年日平均气温与气象站点观测值的相关系数都大于0.86,表明相关性较好;气候模式模拟的中国东南部地区1996-2005年日平均气温的模拟精度较高,模拟值的偏差、平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差都比较小;而西部地区的模拟效果较差,模拟精度较低。综合考虑模式模拟值与站点观测值的相关系数、偏差、平均相对误差、平均绝对误差和均方根误差发现,MME在中国地区的气温模拟精度优于大部分单个模式。

References

[1]  1 巢清尘, 周波涛, 孙颖, 等. 2014. IPCC气候变化自然科学认知的发展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 10(1): 7-13.
[2]  1 [Chao Q C, Zhou B T, Sun Y, et al.2014. The cognition development of the climate change physical sciences on IPCC[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 10(1): 7-13.]
[3]  2 冯靖. 2012. 多全球模式对中国区域气候的模拟评估和预估[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学.
[4]  2 [Feng J.2012. Simulation and projection for regional climate in China by multiple global climate models[D]. Nanjing, China: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology.]
[5]  3 郭彦, 董文杰, 任福民, 等. 2013. CMIP5模式对中国年平均气温模拟及其与CMIP3模式的比较[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 9(3): 81-186.
[6]  3 [Guo Y, Dong W J, Ren F M, et al.2013. Assessment of CMIP5 simulations for China annual average surface temperature and its comparison with CMIP3 simulations[J]. Progressus Inquisitions de Mutatione Climatis, 9(3): 181-186.]
[7]  4 黄传江, 乔方利, 宋亚娟, 等. 2014. CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估[J]. 海洋学报, 36(1): 38-47.
[8]  4 [Huang C J, Qiao F L, Song Y J, et al.2014. The simulation and forecast of SST in the south China sea by CMIP5 models[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 36(1): 38-47.]
[9]  5 胡亚南, 刘颖杰. 2013. 2011-2050年RCP4.5 新情景下东北春玉米种植布局及生产评估[J].中国农业科学, 46(15): 3105-3114.
[10]  5 [Hu Y N, Liu Y J.2013. Planting distribution of spring maize and its productivity under RCP4.5 scenario in Northeast China in 2011-2050[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 46(15): 3105-3114.]
[11]  6 姜会飞. 2008. 农业气象学 [M]. 北京: 科学出版社.
[12]  11 沈永平, 王国亚. 2013. IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J]. 冰川冻土, 35(5): 1068-1076.
[13]  11 [Shen Y P, Wang G Y.2013. Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 35(5): 1068-1076.]
[14]  12 王绍武, 罗勇, 赵宗慈, 等. 2013. IPCC第5次评估报告问世[J]. 气候变化研究进展. 9(6): 436-439.
[15]  12 [Wang S W, Lou Y, Zhao Z C, et al.2013. The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report hits the streets[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 9(6): 436-439.]
[16]  13 王淑瑜, 熊喆. 2004. 5个海气耦合模式模拟东亚区域气候能力的初步分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 9(2): 240-250.
[17]  13 [Wang S Y, Xiong Z.2004. The preliminary analysis of 5 coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate models simulation of regional climate in Asia[J]. Cliamtic and Environmental Research, 9(2): 240-250.]
[18]  14 许崇海, 沈新勇, 徐影. 2007. IPCC AR4模式对东亚地区气候模拟能力的分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 3(5): 287-292.
[19]  14 [Xu C H, Shen X Y, Xu Y.2007. An analysis of climate change in east Asia by using the IPCC AR4 simulations[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 3(5): 287-292.]
[20]  15 杨绚, 汤绪, 陈葆德, 等. 2014. 利用CMIP5多模式集合模拟气候变化对中国小麦产量的影响[J]. 中国农业科学, 47(15): 3009-3024.
[21]  15 [Yang X, Tang X, Chen B D, et al.2014. Impacts of climate change on wheat yield in China simulated by CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble projections[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 47(15): 3009-3024.]
[22]  16 姚遥, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 2012. 8个CMIP5模式对中国极端气温的模拟和预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 8(4): 250-256.
[23]  16 [Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B.2012. Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on 8 modeling data from CMIP5[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 8(4): 250-256.]
[24]  17 张超. 2004. 地理信息系统实习教程[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社.
[25]  17 [Zhang C.2004. Dili xinxi xitong shixi jiaocheng[M]. Beijing, China: Higher Education Press.]
[26]  18 中国农林作物气候区划协作组. 1987. 中国农林作物气候区划[M]. 北京: 气象出版社.
[27]  18 [Chinese Collaboration of Climatic Divisions of Main Agricultural and Forest Crops. 1987. Zhongguo nonglin zuowu qihou quhua[M]. Beijing, China: China Meteorological Press.]
[28]  19 中国农业科学院. 1999. 中国农业气象[M]. 北京: 中国农业出版社. [Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science. 1999. Zhongguo nongye qixiang[M]. Beijing, China: Chinese Agricultural Press.]
[29]  20 赵宗慈, 丁一汇, 李晓东, 等. 1995. 海气耦合模式在东亚地区的可靠性评估[J]. 应用气象学报, 6(S1): 9-18.
[30]  20 [Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, Li X D, et al.1995. Evaluation of CGCM climate simulation in East Asia region[J]. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 6(S1): 9-18.]
[31]  21 赵宗慈. 1990. 全球环流模式在中国部分模拟效果评估[J]. 气象, 16(9): 13-17.
[32]  21 [Zhao Z C.1990. Assessment on validation of general circulation models (GCMs) in China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 16(9): 13-17.]
[33]  22 Challinor A J, Wheeler T, Hemming D, et al.2009. Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change[J]. Climate Research, 38(2): 117-127.
[34]  23 Fowler H J, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C.2007. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 27(12): 1547-1578.
[35]  6 [Jiang H F.2008. Nongye qixiangxue[M]. Beijing, China: Science Press.]
[36]  7 金之庆, 方娟, 葛道阔, 等. 1994. 全球气候变化影响我国冬小麦生产之前瞻[J]. 作物学报, 20(2): 186-196.
[37]  7 [Jin Z Q, Fang J, Ge D K, et al.1994. Prospect to the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in China[J]. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 20(2): 186-196.]
[38]  8 李振朝, 韦志刚, 吕世华, 等. 2013. CMIP5部分气候模式气温和降水模拟结果在北半球及青藏高原的检验[J]. 高原气象, 32(4): 921-928.
[39]  8 [Li Z C, Wei Z G, Lv S H, et al.2013. Verifications of surface air temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 model in northern hemisphere and Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 32(4): 921-928.]
[40]  9 刘敏, 江志红. 2009. 13个IPCC AR4模式对中国区域近40 a气候模拟能力的评估[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 32(2): 256-268.
[41]  9 [Liu M, Jiang Z H.2009. Simulation ability evaluation of surface temperature and precipitation by thirteen IPCC AR4 coupled climate models in China during 1961-2000[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 32(2): 256-268.]
[42]  10 秦大河, Stocker T, 259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京). 2014. IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 10(1): 1-6.
[43]  10 [Qin D H, Stocker T, 259 Authors and TSU(Bern & Beijing). 2014. Highlights of the IPCC working group I Fifth Assessment Report[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 10(1): 1-6.]
[44]  24 IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis[R]. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
[45]  25 IPCC.2013. Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis [R]. Work Group ⅠContribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Stockholm, Sweden: IPCC.
[46]  26 Jacob D J, Winner D A.2009. Effect of climate change on air quality[J]. Atmospheric Environment, 43(1): 51-63.
[47]  27 Parry M L, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, et al.2004. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios[J]. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 53-67.
[48]  28 Verburg P H, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, et al.2002. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model[J]. Environmental Management, 30(3): 391-405.
[49]  29 Zhou T J, Yu R C.2006. Twentieth-century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models[J]. Journal of Climate, 19(22): 5843-5858.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133