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对外贸易的国内就业效应研究——基于全球63个国家的实证分析

, PP. 107-118

Keywords: 出口,进口,国内就业,发达国家,发展中国家

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Abstract:

?在美国次债危机、欧盟债务危机等事件的影响下,世界各国的经济增长普遍出现了下降的趋势,为了保护国内就业,许多国家纷纷实施贸易保护政策,出现了一股逆贸易自由化的浪潮。实施贸易保护政策是否可以达到保护国内就业的目的,取决于每个国家对外贸易的国内就业效应。那么,不同类型国家、不同区域国家进出口贸易的就业效应到底是相同的还是存在很大的差异性呢?基于此,本文利用1991-2008年期间全球63个国家的面板数据,从不同视角针对国际贸易的就业效应进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)从全部样本国家来看,出口的就业效应为正且显著,进口的就业效应为负、不显著。(2)从不同类型国家来看,发达国家和发展中国家的出口都有利于促进国内就业,但是,发达国家的进口对国内就业的不利影响较大且显著,而发展中国家的进口对国内就业的不利影响较小且不显著。与发达国家相比,发展中国家出口的就业促进效应较小,进口的就业替代效应也较小且不显著。(3)从不同区域国家来看,各个区域出口的就业效应都为正,其中,只有拉美国家出口的效应不显著,东亚及东南亚发展中国家出口的效应最大;欧洲国家、亚洲国家、东亚及东南亚发展中国家进口的就业效应都为负、不显著、较小,只有拉美国家进口的效应为正、较大;亚洲国家出口的就业效应比全部发展中国家整体的出口就业效应还小,但是,东亚及东南亚发展中国家出口的就业效应比全部亚洲国家、拉美国家、欧洲国家的都要大。从上述研究结果来看,不同国家进出口贸易的就业效应具有一定的差异性,实施贸易保护未必有利于国内的就业,每个国家必须根据本国的实际情况,制定有针对性的政策。

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