全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用：99美元
投递稿件

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

基于SPI的渭河流域干旱特征演变研究

DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0103, PP. 15-22

Keywords: 标准降水指数,干旱,Copula,联合分布,渭河流域

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

基于渭河流域21个气象站的1961-2010年的标准降水指数(SPI),采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法研究了各个站点12个月份的SPI、干旱严重程度以及干旱历时的变化趋势,最后运用Copula函数计算了渭河流域两种典型干旱情景下的联合重现期。得到主要结论如下:(1)整个渭河流域干旱趋势明显,其中干旱化显著的月份主要有11、12以及1月,而有湿润化趋势的月份主要集中在7、8月份,此外,干旱严重程度与干旱历时的变化趋势均不显著;总的来说,该流域干旱季节越干旱而湿润季节越湿润的趋势进一步加大了水资源管理的难度,渭河流域存在较大的旱涝风险;(2)就"且"重现期而言,渭河流域发生典型中度干旱和典型重度干旱的联合重现分别为28.9年和53.1年一遇;整个渭河流域发生中度干旱的可能性大,流域西北部发生旱灾的概率要大于东南部。因此,相关部门应该加大渭河流域西北部干旱监测力度,提前做好防灾减灾的准备。

 References

[1]  Wu H, Hayes M J, Hu Q. An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, the China-Z index and the statistical z-score [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2001, 21: 745-758.
[2]  Shiau J T, Modarres R. Copula-based drought severity-duration-frequency analysis in Iran [J]. Meteorological Application, 2009, 16: 481-489.
[3]  Shiau J T. Fitting drought duration and severity with two-dimensional Copulas [J]. Water Resources Management, 2006, 20: 795-815.
[4]  Mathier L, Perreault L, Bobe B. The use of geometric and gamma-related distributions for frequency analysis of water deficit [J]. Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, 1992, 6(4): 239-254.
[5]  Frank J, Masse J. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for goodness of fit [J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1951, 46(253): 68-78.
[6]  Hamed K, Rao A. A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data [J]. J. Hydrol., 1998, 204: 182-196.
[7]  Nelsen R B. An Introduction to Copulas [M]. New York: Springer, 2006: 7-269.
[8]  Genest C, Rivest L P. Statistical inference procedures for bivariate Archimedean Copulas [J]. American Statistical Association, 1993, 88(423): 1034-1043.
[9]  Huard D, évin G, Favre A C. Bayesian copula selection [J]. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2006, 51: 809-822.
[10]  Salvadori G, Michele C. Frequency analysis via Copulas: Theoretical aspects and applications to hydrological events [J]. Water Resource Research, 2004, doi: 10. 1029/2004WR003133.
[11]  Wilhite, D A. Drought as a Natural Hazard: Concepts and Definitions. Drought: A Global Assessment. Routledge, London, 2000, UK.
[12]  刘彤, 闫天池. 我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2011, 20(2): 91-95.
[13]  LIU Tong, YAN Tianchi. Main meteorological disasters in China and their economic losses [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2011, 20(2): 91-95. (In Chinese)
[14]  Francesco S, Brunella B, et al. Probabilistic characterization of drought properties through copulas [J]. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 2009, 34, 596-605.
[15]  Yoo J, Kwon H H, et al. Drought frequency analysis using cluster analysis and bivariate probability distribution [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 420-421, 102-111.
[16]  肖名忠, 张强, 陈永勤, 等. 基于三变量Copula函数的东江流域水文干旱频率分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(2): 99-108.
[17]  XIAO Mingzhong, ZHANG Qiang, CHEN Yongqin, et al. Hydrological drought frequency analysis of East River basin based on trivariate Copulas function [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(2): 99-108. (In Chinese)
[18]  蔡哲, 章毅之, 何拥凤, 等. 江西省干旱洪涝的时空变化特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(2): 99-108.
[19]  CAI Zhe, ZHANG Yizhi, HE Yongfeng, et al. Analysis of spatiotemporal trend characteristics of droughts and floods in Jiangxi Province [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(2): 144-149. (In Chinese)
[20]  初征, 张丽娟, 马骏, 等. 1980-2000年松嫩平原耕地变化及其对干旱的影响[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(2): 110-115.
[21]  CHU Zheng, ZHANG Lijuan, MA Jun, et al. Change of cultivated land in Songnen Plain during 1980-2000 and its impacts on drought [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(2): 110-115. (In Chinese)
[22]  和宛琳, 徐宗学. 渭河流域干旱特征及干旱指数计算方法初探[J]. 气象, 2006, 32(1): 24-29.
[23]  HE Wanlin, XU Zongxue. Analysis of drought and application of drought index in the Weihe River Basin [J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2006, 32(1): 24-29. (In Chinese)
[24]  马明卫, 宋松柏, 于艺, 等. 渭河流域干旱特征联合概率分布研究[J]. 水力发电学报, 2012, 31(6): 28-34.
[25]  MA Mingwei, Song Songbai, YU Yi, et al. Multivariate joint probability distribution of droughts in Wei River basin [J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering 2012, 31(6): 28-34. (In Chinese)
[26]  李俊霖, 延军平, 孙虎等. 关中平原东、中、西部气候干旱化程度比较分析[J].干旱区资源与环境, 2005, 19(1): 131-134.
[27]  LI Junlin, YAN Junping, Sun Hu, et al. An Analysis on climatic changes in east, middle and west areas of Guanzhong Plain [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2005, 19(1): 131-134. (In Chinese)
[28]  Lima M P, Santo F E, et al. Recent changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal, in the period 1941-2007 [J]. Atmospheric Research, 2013, 127: 195-209.
[29]  Trenberth K E. Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change [J]. Climatic change, 1999, 42, 327-339.
[30]  李平华, 胡小晖, 程燕. 陕西关中地区水文气候状况对全球变暖的响应问题探讨[J]. 灾害学, 2002, 17(2) : 37- 41.
[31]  LI Pinghua, HU Xiaohui, CHENG Yan. The climatic and hydrologic response to global warming in Guanzhong Region [J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2002, 17(2): 37- 41. (In Chinese)
[32]  Zhang L, Singh V P. Trivariate flood frequency analysis using the Gumbel -Hougaard copula [J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2007, 12(4): 431-439.
[33]  Grimaldi S, Serinaldi F. Asymmetric copula in multivariate flood frequency analysis [J]. Advances in Water Resources, 2006, 29(8):1155-1167.
[34]  Genest C, Rémillard B, Beaudoin D. Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: a review and a power study [J]. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2009, 44: 199-213.
[35]  李斌, 李丽娟, 李海滨, 等. 澜沧江流域干旱变化的时空特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(5): 87-92.
[36]  LI Bin, LI Lijuan, LI Haibin, et al. Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in the Lancang River basin [J]. Transaction of the CSAE, 2011, 27(5): 87-92. (In Chinese)
[37]  马明卫, 宋松柏. 渭河流域干旱指标空间分布研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2012, 29(4): 681-691.
[38]  MA Mingwei, SONG Songbai. Study on spatial distribution of drought indices in the Weihe River Basin [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2012, 29(4): 681-691. (In Chinese)
[39]  张宏利, 陈豫, 任广鑫, 等. 近50年来渭河流域降水变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究, 2008, 26(4): 236- 241.
[40]  ZHANG Hongli, CHEN Yu, REN Guangxin, et al. The characteristics of precipitation variation of Weihe River Basin in Shaanxi Province during recent 50 years [J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2008, 26(4): 236- 241. (In Chinese)
[41]  McKee T B, Doesken N J, et al. The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales[M]. Preprints Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, CA, 1993: 179-184.
[42]  李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等. 基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变[J]. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.
[43]  LI Jianfeng, ZHANG Qiang, CHEN Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China [J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2012, 23(3): 322-330. (In Chinese)

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133