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基于降水量距平百分率的中国西南和华南地区的冬旱特征

DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2015.0104, PP. 23-31

Keywords: 冬旱,级别,季尺度降水,西南和华南

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Abstract:

利用我国西南和华南地区131个测站近50a的降水资料和NECP资料,采用线性趋势分析、合成分析、小波分析、功率谱分析等方法,通过季尺度降水距平百分率将冬旱分为无旱、轻旱、中旱、重旱和特重旱5个级别,分析了近50a我国西南和华南地区各级别干旱的空间分布及时间变化特征。结果表明:在这一区域中,每一个级别的干旱都有从东向西增多的分布趋势;重旱、特重旱集中出现在川西南―云南、广东南部;各级别干旱都无明显的气候趋势,1963年是干旱最重的年份,主要在云南、广东等地,其次是1969年、2009年、1974年,但2010年末期干旱面积增大,强度增强。各级别的干旱具有2~3a的周期,特重旱年有显著的6a周期;干旱频率高的地方连旱频率也高,连旱年数增多,分布范围减小。

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