全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

灾害风险基本定义的探讨

, PP. 8-16

Keywords: 风险,定义,概率,情景,灾害

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

近年来,各种灾难给人类造成的损失急剧上升,人类的减灾观念正从灾后的反应转变为灾前防御,灾害风险管理被提上了议事日程。然而,什么是风险?什么是灾害风险?目前仍然是众说纷纭,莫衷一是。指出了国际上较有影响的18个灾害风险定义的不足之处,进一步阐述了作者早年提出的以情景为基础的风险定义,进而给出了自然灾害风险的基本定义,并根据下定义时必须遵循的4条规则,将它与联合国开发计划署建议的定义进行了比较,说明本文给出的基本定义较为合理。

References

[1]  Alexander D.Confronting Catastrophe:New Perspectives on Natural Disasters[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,2000.
[2]  Awlang J,Siegel PB,Jorgensen SL.Vulnerability:a View from Different Discip lines[R].Social Protection Discussion Paper Series,No.0115.Washington,D.C.:Social Protection Unit,Human Development Network,World Bank,2001.
[3]  Clarke L.Mission Im probable:Using Fantasy Documents to Tame Disaster[M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1999.
[4]  Knight FH.Risk,Uncertainty,and Profit[M].New York:Hart,Schaffner,and Marx,1921.
[5]  Rashed T,Weeks J.Assessing vulnerability to earth quake hazards through spatial multicriteri aanalys is of urban areas[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2003,17(6):547-576.
[6]  Garatwa W,Bollin C.Dsaster Risk Management:A Working Concept[R].Eschborn(Germany):Deutsche Gesellschaftfr Technische Zusam-menarbeit(GTZ),2002.
[7]  Huang CF.Risk analysis within formation described in natural language[C].Lecture Notes in Computer Science,2007,4489:1016-1023.
[8]  Swiss Re.Sigm a[R].No.2,Zurich:Swiss Rein surance Com Company,2000.
[9]  Beck U.Risk Society:Towards a New Modernity[M].London:Sage Publications,1992.
[10]  Schneiderbauer S,Ehrlich D.Risk,Hazard and People’S Vulnerability to Natural Hazard :sa Review of Definitions,Concepts and Data[R].EUR Report 21410/EN,Luxem bourg:Office for Official Publication of the European Communities.
[11]  Shrestha BP.Uncertainty in risk analysis of water resources systems und erclmiate change[C].In Bogardi J.J.,Kundzewicz Z.W.(Eds.):Risk,Reliability,Uncertainty,and Robustness of Water Resources Systems,UNESCO International Hydrology Series,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002:153-160.
[12]  UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery:Reducing Disaster Risk:a Challenge for Development.A Global Report[M].(Pelling M.,Maskrey A.,Ru iz P.,Hall L.Eds.).New York:John S.Swift Co.,2004.
[13]  UNEP:Global Environment Outlook 3-Past,Present and Future Perspectives[M].London:Earth scan Publications Ltd,2002.
[14]  Crichton D.The risk triangle[C].In Ingleton J.(Ed.):Natural DisasterManagement.London:Tudor Rose,1999:102-103.
[15]  Cardona OD.Indicators for Disaster Risk Management[R].First Expert Meeting on Disaster Risk Con ceptualization and Indicator Modelling,Manizales,Colombia:Inter-American Development Bank,2003.
[16]  ADRC.Total Disaster Risk Management:Good Practice 2005[R].Kobe,Japan:As ian Disaster Reduction Center,2005.
[17]  Tiedem ann H.Earthquakes and Volcanicn Eruptions:A Handbook on Risk Assessment[R].Geneva,Switzerland:Swiss Reinsurance Company,1992.
[18]  黄崇福.综合风险评估的一个基本模式[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2008,16(3):371-381.
[19]  Huang,CF,Ruan D.Fuzzy risks and anupdating algorithm with new observations[J].Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):681-694.
[20]  黄崇福.自然灾害基本定义的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(5),41-50.
[21]  Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets[J].Information and Control, 1965,8(3):338-353.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133