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大气科学  2006 

多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响

DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.01.08

Keywords: ARPS模式,雷达资料同化,初始场,3h短时预报

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Abstract:

利用中尺度模式ARPS(TheAdvancedRegionalPredictionSystem)及其资料分析系统ADAS(ARPSDataAnalysisSystem),将国内新一代多普勒雷达(CINRAD)反射率及径向风资料直接用于中尺度数值模拟,通过一次华北地区暴雨过程的模拟对比试验,分析了雷达资料对初始场的改进效果及其对模拟结果的影响,结果表明:(1)利用雷达径向风资料对初始风场进行调整后,自近地面到对流层顶的u,v,w都发生了变化,调整后的初始风场在对流层中层变化最大.(2)利用雷达反射率进行微物理调整和云分析能调整初始场中的云水信息,使得雷达回波附近3km以下的水汽混合比(qv)增加,4km以下的雨水混合比(qr)增加,对流层(约10km以下)的云水混合比(qc)增加,4~9km的对流层上部云冰混合比(qi)和雪混合比(qs)增加.ADAS通过非绝热初始化调整温度场,从而得到了一个动力和热力上平衡的初始场.(3)模拟的1h雨量与实况的对比表明,同时利用雷达反射率和径向风改进过的初始场能明显增强3h内的降水强度和落区预报,改善中尺度数值模式短时定量降水预报.模拟的1h流场对比分析表明,经雷达径向风调整后,能够在初始场中增加气旋性涡旋等中小尺度风信息,明显减少模式的spin-up时间.(4)通过对雷达径向风和反射率对模式初始场和模拟结果影响的对比分析发现,雷达径向风主要是改进初始风场,而雷达反射率主要是改进初始场中的湿度参数,增加初始场中云水等的含量,调整温度场.通过模拟的6h降水对比发现,利用雷达径向风调整初始场后,对降水模拟有一定的改进,但效果不甚明显,而雷达反射率资料对定量降水预报改进效果明显,同时使用雷达径向风和反射率资料改进初始场后对降水的模拟效果最明显.

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