农民工养老保险参与决策：一个OLG模型的考察
Migrant Workers’ Participation in Pension Insurance:An Investigation Via an OLG Model

通过构建一个农民工追求跨期效用最大化的OLG模型，理论分析了均衡条件下农民工收入及风险偏好因素对其养老保险参与决策的影响；基于全国31个省市的调查数据，利用双变量Probit模型实证分析了个人与家庭特征、收入与土地、务工状况与预期等因素对农民工养老保险参与决策的影响。结果表明：务工与务农收入对农民工参与养老保险决策的影响并不显著，而恩格尔系数和非收入性因素却大多显著地影响了农民工的参保决策。为此，一方面，要提高农民工的收入水平、生活宽裕程度和支付能力，使之更有意愿和能力参与养老保险；另一方面，要增强农民工对未来生活确定性的预期和安全感，使之参与养老保险的水平得以提高。
This paper builds an OLG model through which migrant workers pursue their maximum utility,and analyzes the influence of migrant workers’ income and risk preference factors on their participation in pension insurance under the equilibrium condition.Based on the survey data in 31 provinces and cities in China and the Bi-Probit model,the paper finds that the personal & family characteristics,income and land,working status and expectation have a profound effect on migrant workers’ participation in pension insurance.There is no remarkable connection between migrant workers’ participation in pension insurance and their income from farm work and other sources,but the Engel coefficient and non-income factors greatly affect their participation.Therefore,the policy implication is to raise the migrant workers’ income level,enhance their ability to pay,and make them feel the affluence of life,which could probably increase their participation in pension insurance.Meanwhile,to fortify their expectation to life and sense of security in case of uncertainty could help to elevate the participation rate.