人口年龄结构和住房价格对城镇居民家庭消费的影响机理
The Influencing Mechanisms of Population Age Structure and Housing Price on Household Consumption in Urban China

摘要 中国人口老龄化和“全面两孩”政策引致的人口年龄结构变化能否提升家庭消费成为新时代人口学及相关学科亟需探讨的新命题。文章构建了人口年龄结构、住房价格和家庭消费的综合分析框架，并运用SYSGMM模型进行实证研究，发现少儿抚养比和老年抚养比均对城镇居民消费水平提高和消费结构改善起到直接的拉动效应，而住房价格上涨通过调节效应对上述直接效应的发挥产生抑制作用。因此，文章提出“全面两孩”政策和人口老龄化现象带来的抚养比提高潜藏着巨大的消费动力，抚养负担能够转化为人口结构红利。坚持房地产调控政策，避免房价过快上涨，能够促进人口结构红利释放，促进城镇家庭消费水平的提高和消费结构的优化。
Abstract：:A question of considerable interest and importance is whether China's population age structure changes caused by population aging and the universal twochild policy can improve household consumption in the new era. This paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of demographic age structure, housing price and household consumption, and conducts empirical research by using SYS-GMM model. The results reveal that both the child and elderly dependency ratios have direct positive effect on the improvement of urban households' consumption level and consumption structure, while the variable of housing price plays a significant negative moderating role on this positive effect. Therefore, this study proposes that the increase of dependency ratio brought by the universal two-child policy and population aging trend has great potential for consumption, and the dependency burden could be transformed into the demographic structure dividend. Furthermore, real estate regulation policies should be continued so as to avoid the excessively rapid rise of housing prices and unleash demographic structure dividend to help improve urban household consumption level and optimize urban household consumption structure