Do National Homicide Rates Follow Supranational Trends?

We explored supranational trends in national homicide rates. We searched for a global trend, regional trends, and trends specific to other theoretically relevant groups of nations. We also tested two common metanarratives—modernization and conflict—as potential explanations for any global trend present in homicide rates. We obtained annual homicide victimization rates for 94 nations between 1979 and 2013. We examined year-to-year differences, squared semipartial correlation coefficients to search for supranational trends, and pooled cross-sectional mixed models to test potential explanations of any global trend. There was a very weak global homicide trend. We found strong regional trends in Eastern Europe and in Northern Europe, a weak trend for South and Central America, and no trend for Asia. Both wealthy and nonwealthy nations exhibited weak trends. Transitional nations shared a strong homicide trend. Modernization and conflict theories fared poorly as explanations for the weak global trend. The presence or absence of supranational homicide trends holds significant implications for theory. A weak global trend is evidence against widely held metanarratives such as the modernization, civilizing, and conflict perspectives. Strong subregional homicide trends in Eastern Europe and Northern Europe demand further exploration and should shift popular attention away from Western Europe. The lack of a homicide trend in developed or developing nations and the presence of a strong trend among transitional nations are curious features requiring further consideration