新零售模式下消费者需求为导向的商业企业货源投放模式研究
Research on the Supply Mode of Commercial Enterprises Guided by Consumer Demand under the New Retail Mode

在“互联网+”和烟草行业信息化水平不断发展的大背景下，经济发展的市场化和国际化迫使中国烟草行业直面严厉的挑战。粗犷的商业投放模式和营销方式，无法适应当今快速变化的互联网市场环境，导致消费者难以挑选到心仪的产品，而企业也无法把适当的产品投向对应的市场，更无从市场导向控制烟草的生产情况。对此本文致力于推出一个模型，通过消费者画像与品牌产品画像的匹配，达成更好的商业企业货源投放模式。这就要求完善基于最小商圈的中短期需求预测模型和市场状态评价模型，探索研究“状态研判 + 前置推演”的货源投放模式。该模型的推行，一方面可以达到精准营销的目的，让消费者挑选到合适的产品，提高购买力，另一方面也有指导产品投放，进一步指导产品生产的作用。
Under the background of “Internet+” and the continuous development of the informatization level of the tobacco industry, the marketization and internationalization of economic development force the Chinese tobacco industry to face severe challenges. The rugged business delivery mode and marketing mode cannot adapt to the rapidly changing Internet market environment today, which makes it difficult for consumers to choose the products they want, and enterprises cannot put appropriate products into the corresponding market, let alone control the production of tobacco from the market orientation. In this regard, this paper is committed to launching a model to achieve a better supply delivery mode for commercial enterprises through the matching of consumer portraits and brand product portraits. This requires improving the medium- and short-term demand forecasting model and the market state evaluation model based on the smallest business district, and exploring and studying the “state research and judgment + pre deduction” mode of goods release. The implementation of this model, on the one hand, can achieve the purpose of precision marketing, so that consumers can select suitable products and improve their purchasing power; on the other hand, it can also guide product launch and further guide product production.