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复杂网络下银行–能源企业系统风险传染研究
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Abstract:
实体经济企业与金融系统在信贷、贸易等方面存在的关联关系为风险提供了传播渠道。同时，在“双碳”政策的影响下，银行和能源企业面临着转型风险，为探究银行–能源企业系统的风险传染机理，守住不发生系统性风险的底线。本文运用复杂网络的方法，将能源企业间的共股东关联关系和银行与能源企业间的信贷关联结合在一起。通过构建银行–能源企业系统的网络和风险传染模型，实证分析了银行–能源企业系统风险的动态演化规律，研究了该系统平均系统性风险的特点。研究发现，能源企业共股东关联关系是风险的主要传播渠道，能源企业系统承担了绝大部分的系统性风险。在研究银行–能源企业系统的风险时，若忽略能源企业共股东关联关系时，会造成风险的严重低估。
The correlation between real economy enterprises and the financial system in terms of credit and trade provides a channel for risk transmission. At the same time, under the influence of the “double carbon” policy, banks and energy enterprises are facing the transition risk. To explore the risk transmission mechanism of the bank-energy enterprise system, and to keep the bottom line of no systemic risk. In this paper, we use the method of complex network to combine the co-share- holder relationship between energy enterprises and the credit linkage between banks and energy enterprises. By constructing a network and risk contagion model of the bank-energy enterprise system, it empirically analyses the dynamic evolution law of the bank-energy enterprise system risk, and studies the characteristics of the average systemic risk of the system. It is found that the energy enterprise co-shareholder affiliation is the main transmission channel of risk, and the energy enterprise system bears most of the systemic risk. When studying the risk of the bank-energy firm system, ignoring the energy firms' co-shareholder affiliation will result in a serious underestimation of the risk.
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