Estimating the Future of Health Care at the Community Level

Developments in health care in the United States are changing the delivery of services for providers and payors. This study focused on inpatient hospital discharges in the Syracuse hospitals and other services. It demonstrated that, during the past five years, numbers of inpatient adult medicine discharges had increased while adult surgery discharges had declined. This information suggested that adult medicine discharges could be expected to increase and approach levels of five years ago. It also suggested adult surgery discharges could be expected to remain at previous levels or decline. This information indicated that the combined emergency department visits declined from 238,000 to 202,000 between 2019 and 2020, then increased from 218,000 to 228,000 visits between 2021 and 2023. These developments will probably result in greater efficiency at the community level. With a decline in numbers of inpatient beds, providers will be able to focus on the more efficient management by reducing numbers of staff as well as fewer pharmaceuticals and testing.